There is a lot of speculation about former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley heading into Super Tuesday, and none of it is about which states will she win or how many delegates she will earn. The biggest question is: What will she do next?
It’s been an interesting journey for Haley. She kicked off her campaign by calling for generational change and mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old, a jab at both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Yet she would not take on Trump directly, stating, “I don’t kick sideways.” (I’m still not sure what that really meant.)
Ideally, Haley commits to staying until July, but that may depend less on her willpower and more on her donors.
After doing well — but not well enough to win — in New Hampshire, she started more aggressively going after Trump. She gained new donors and perhaps some supporters, but still lost in South Carolina.
Super Tuesday will be Haley’s big reveal day. Ideally, Haley commits to staying until July, but that may depend less on her willpower and more on her donors. While Haley continues to raise money, the super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action, funded by billionaire Charles Koch, recently paused its financial support, although not its endorsement.
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If she is going to drop out of the race, and if she is going to endorse Trump, election night would be the time to do it. This would amount to a full surrender, leaving plenty of angry supporters with egg on their faces. However, Haley has built up quite a following by exposing Trump’s weaknesses with independent and suburban voters, and may never be fully welcomed back to MAGA land. She has the T-shirts to prove it.
Predictions at this juncture feel almost impossible. Back in August 2023, debate moderator Bret Baier asked, “If former President Trump is convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party’s choice? Please raise your hand if you would.” Haley raised her hand. Yet when the subject came up in an ABC News interview last month, Haley refused to say if she would support Trump, responding: “Y’all can talk about support later. Right now you can ask him if he’s going to support me when I’m the nominee.”
After a loss, almost all politicians desperately seek relevance. If Haley drops out but refuses to kiss the ring, she will still be looking to stay a part of the conversation. No Labels, an organization that has been pushing for a “unity ticket” as a viable third-party option, has shown an interest in Haley. I think this route would be a horrible mistake. For one thing, adding a No Labels candidate to the ballot would likely help Trump win in November. And to be the (losing) candidate who pushed Trump to victory would stain Haley’s legacy forever.
Luckily, Hayley at least publicly seems to agree. On Friday, she told reporters she hasn’t spoken to “anyone” at the group about a potential ticket.
But there is a third option for Haley. She could refuse to drop out, continue to run a smart and lean campaign, and continue to use her platform to speak to the dangers of a second Trump presidency. This still does not have to mean running a pro-Biden campaign. But she knows just how much is on the line and has credibility with a small but influential group of voters. Center-right Republicans and independents played a critical role in beating Trump in 2020, and Haley has their ear. She can still make a difference.
Perhaps Haley could join forces with former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney. Together they would be a powerful force for democracy in 2024. And should Trump lose in November, the battle to reshape the Republican Party starts on Nov. 6. These two women have proven they are certainly up to the task. I can think of few conservatives better positioned to help usher in a new generation of GOP leadership.
