Recent polls have given Democrats good reason to feel gloomy and anxious about President Joe Biden’s chances of winning re-election. But there’s an important area in which Biden is outstripping former President Donald Trump: money.
Biden and the Democratic Party have a significant cash advantage over Republicans at the moment. That could change in the coming months, but so far it’s a sign that Democratic donors are reasonably engaged with the party and that Republicans have some financial vulnerabilities. If Democrats maintain their relatively strong financial position it will give them an edge in the run-up to Election Day.
Biden’s main campaign committee started 2024 with about $46 million in cash on hand, significantly more than Trump’s $33 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. To be clear, Biden’s lead over Trump isn’t massive, and around the same point in the 2020 election cycle then-President Trump had a whopping $102.7 million in cash on hand. But there are a number of reasons that Biden’s financial advantage may be particularly durable.
Trump’s ability to capitalize on his legal woes is waning.
While Biden isn’t facing a significant challenger in the primaries, Trump will have to spend money in the GOP primaries to defeat former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — who has a decent amount of cash on hand herself and could theoretically carry on for a while even if she continues to lose nominating contests.
The bigger drain on Trump’s war chest, though, is his vast array of legal entanglements. The Trump campaign and affiliated political action committees reportedly spent around $50 million on legal bills for Trump and his inner circle. These efforts will continue to be a drain on Trump’s wallet, siphoning funds that would otherwise be spent on messaging, turnout and other campaign operations.
Some — including my colleague Hayes Brown — would argue that Trump recoups some of his legal spending because his court appearances and his widely discussed legal arguments function as a kind of advertising for his presidential campaign and a way to boost his coffers. There's some truth to that. But Trump’s ability to capitalize on his legal woes is waning: A new Reuters report shows that whereas his main fundraising group was once able to raise up to $4 million in a day around court appearances, by the end of last year those fundraising hauls sank to close to Trump’s overall daily fundraising average of $300,000.
The Republican National Committee isn’t looking so hot either. The Democratic National Committee started the new year with $21 million — more than double the money available to its Republican counterpart. The GOP committee appears to be going through a financial drought; according to Guardian investigative reporter Hugo Lowell, the RNC entered 2024 with less money on hand than the start of any year since 2013 (which, unlike 2024, was at least the year after an election). The Washington Post reports that both smaller and larger donors are apparently contributing less, and people familiar with the party’s finances told the Post that “some donors aren’t giving to the RNC because they think that will help Trump.”
The financial picture for both parties will change in the coming months, and there’s no guarantee that Democrats will remain on top. There are debates about how much campaign spending matters for any given election, but more money generally confers some strategic advantages. More money for advertising means staying top of mind for more voters, more effective defense against attacks, more effective criticism of an opponent’s record. More money for get-out-the-vote operations help mobilization. It’s important to remember as there’s a good chance that the two parties’ likely nominees probably will be neck and neck in the polls as Election Day approaches. A gap in resources could make all the difference.
