Since House Republicans first won their narrow majority in the midterm elections, I’ve been stressing that their far-right members will be the biggest hindrance to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and his ability to govern as speaker. I can now say that I was myopic. While McCarthy’s inability or unwillingness to rebuff the far right is an ongoing problem, it won’t be the sole reason his speakership eventually collapses.
As it turns out, McCarthy is also just as bad at managing everyone else in his caucus, including the members of his own leadership team. And if he can’t get everyone on the same page, and fast, the global economy stands to be the biggest loser of the GOP power struggle.
The current drama is that Republicans have yet to agree on a budget. President Joe Biden, well aware of the divisions among the GOP on this matter, has said he won’t negotiate with Republicans over raising the debt ceiling until he can see their full budget plan. And, according to The New York Times, McCarthy has “no confidence” in Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, the chair of the Budget Committee.
But apparently, that’s not the extent of McCarthy’s beef with Arrington. During the drawn-out struggle for the speaker’s gavel in January, Arrington reportedly floated the name of Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. That trial balloon went nowhere, not least because Scalise — the House majority leader, who has long been McCarthy’s No. 2 — reportedly “discouraged members from floating his name as an alternative.”
As for budget negotiations, Arrington told reporters last month that the GOP was readying a “term sheet” with its conditions for raising the debt ceiling. McCarthy told reporters, “I don’t know what he’s talking about.” Convinced Arrington can’t pull together a budget, McCarthy regards him as “incompetent,” the Times reported.
Ouch.
Scalise, meanwhile, isn’t exactly one of McCarthy’s favorite people right now. According to the Times, late last month he reportedly gave the rest of leadership assurances that the Parents Bill of Rights was on course for easy passage. But in the end, five Republicans voted against it — which would have been enough to tank it if some Democrats hadn’t been absent. And Republicans meant that bill to be one of the major parts of their agenda.
Beneath the obvious “Mean Girls” atmosphere in the Capitol, several bits of intrigue are playing out. There’s a certain irony in Arrington’s disenfranchisement. Since the Republican Revolution in 1994, the House GOP has often chafed at the centralization of power in the hands of the speaker. One of the proposed solutions has been to devolve power back to the committees, whose chairs used to rule over them as their personal fiefdoms.
McCarthy’s response hasn’t been empowering chairs like Arrington, though, even as he has made himself more vulnerable to being ousted as the price for his gavel. Instead, McCarthy has tapped Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., to be the point person on the debt ceiling negotiations. It’s also a weird choice, one most likely based more on McCarthy’s personal loyalty than on any particular skill Graves brings to the table. It’s unlikely to win him any points among the rest of the rank and file, nor is the perception that he's trying to find someone else to catch the blame for the failure to produce a budget.
Meanwhile, there’s a rich tradition in Congress of rivalry between the top-ranked members in a caucus (see: Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., vs. Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md.). One senior House GOP aide told NBC News that “they were ‘surprised’ to see the tensions spilling out into the open. ‘But it’s no secret Scalise and McCarthy’s teams have always kinda been at odds,’ the aide said.”
It’s less surprising that Scalise hasn’t made obvious plays for the gavel. Everything I’ve ever heard or read about him portrays him as affable and well-liked by his colleagues, including those across the aisle. That’s the kind of reputation one doesn’t toss aside casually with ill-timed schemes. And whatever the reason for his false confidence ahead of the vote on the Parents Bill of Rights, his previous role as minority whip must mean he knows he doesn’t have the support to take out his boss — yet. No, it makes much more sense for Scalise to simply bide his time as the pressure on McCarthy most likely increases over the coming weeks. There’s a dwindling window for McCarthy to right the ship — and I’m not sure he should count on First Mate Scalise to back him in event of mutiny.
House Democrats probably have a good bit of schadenfreude about this ongoing mess. The internal strife at the top has left the Republican agenda moving in slow motion over these first almost 100 days. On some of the things you’d think would be priorities, such as immigration, the GOP’s disarray has kept off the floor bills that would force Democrats to take votes that could be used in political attacks.
McCarthy’s lack of skill at moving his caucus forward could otherwise be seen as the feel-good event of the spring — except there’s the looming debt ceiling crisis. Because while his ineffectiveness in most policy areas is a benefit for the Americans who would be most affected by the draconian cuts the GOP is pushing, a failure to lift the debt ceiling would have repercussions for us all.
