It’s been four years since President Donald Trump last addressed a joint session of Congress, and you can bet that tonight’s speech will not focus on unifying our nation through measured, bipartisan policy proposals. Instead, I anticipate an address full of dubious bluster designed to elate his base, unnerve the left and deflect attention away from one of his most glaring broken promises thus far.
My educated guess is, generally, that we will be in for a long night. (I wouldn't be surprised if he surpasses President Bill Clinton's impressively long 90-minute State of the Union in 2000.)
To begin, I expect Trump to spend at least some time relitigating his last four years out of office.
To begin, I expect Trump to spend at least some time relitigating his last four years out of office. Think of this as the, “I was wronged” portion of the evening. This is where he is likely to go off the prompter and attack former President Joe Biden, rant about the Department of Justice and insult former special counsel Jack Smith. At the end of this section, look for some sort of mention of retribution.
Then, I predict, he will transition to achievements from his first six weeks in office, especially on the topic of immigration. According to early data, illegal border crossings along the U.S. border with Mexico have dropped dramatically, a legitimately big win for the Trump administration and something he will absolutely emphasize.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is also a key part of Trump’s 100 days agenda, albeit a much murkier one. There are many questions swirling around the amount of savings actually achieved by DOGE, and its inexcusable, sloppy firings of federal employees. But Trump isn’t going to acknowledge any of that, of course. Expect him instead to tout Musk’s crusade against government waste — real or imagined — as he did at CPAC a couple of weeks ago.
On the foreign policy front, our “America First” president will be unable to avoid discussing the very public White House blowup he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week. Again, the base seems to love Trump’s chest-thumping bravado, but keep an eye out for any Republicans tempering their applause.
Trump loves to threaten his perceived rivals, and the Ukrainian debacle has given him a whole new reason to go after the European Union and our allies abroad. Zelenskyy was welcomed with open arms by European leaders over the weekend, and there is very little doubt that Trump will take this as a snub. It’s even possible Trump will announce some new form of punishment, tied to NATO or tariffs.
That’s the kind of moment that the base loves but leaders on both sides of the party dread, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Trump often said that he would start his Oval Office tenure on “day one” by lowering the price of groceries.
Which brings us to a topic I will be watching very closely: How Trump handles the economy. Once considered one of his biggest assets, this “kitchen table” issue is looking increasingly like a liability. According to a recent Reuters poll, “Americans who think the economy is on the wrong track rose to 53%” in mid-February, which is up from 43% at the end of January.
On the campaign trail, Trump often said that he would start his Oval Office tenure by lowering the price of groceries on “day one.” He even held a press event next to tables filled with food items — oddly focused on breakfast foods like cereal — to rally against the rising costs of food. These days, however, Trump is virtually silent on pricing, preferring to bring up DEI or transgender issues to deflect from his failure to reverse the trend.
Distraction is a tried-and-true tactic for Trump, and distraction is what I’m expecting in spades. From impugning enemies to flirting with potential new trade wars, the more noise Trump generates, the harder it is to focus on any one issue. Like, for example, the very real cost of eggs.
