At a presidential debate with the late Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan created the template for judging a president’s record when he asked the audience, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
But Reagan didn’t just leave viewers to choose their own metrics for their answers. Instead, he went on to list a number of benchmarks for judging the incumbent:
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we’re as strong as we were four years ago?
When the 2028 election rolls around, Donald Trump and his allies will no doubt claim that everything went swimmingly, just as they did when he ran for re-election in the midst of a global Covid pandemic that he mishandled.
So as Trump returns to the White House on Monday, these benchmarks can help us judge the next four years.
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago?
The Federal Reserve’s target for inflation is 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal spending. In December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate was 2.9%, higher than the target but still far below the peak of 9.1% in June of 2022. To take one popular example as a measure of where things stand now, the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the U.S. was $4.15 in December and a gallon of whole milk was $4.10. Trump, of course, promised that grocery prices would “come down fast” during the campaign before switching gears, telling Time magazine in December that bringing down prices is “very hard.”
Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago?
Unlike inflation, the Fed doesn’t have a set target for employment. A few years ago, it defined “maximum employment” as somewhere between 5% and 6% unemployment. These days, it’s closer to 4%. Incidentally, that’s about where it’s at right now. In December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Many analysts believe that the U.S. has achieved a so-called “soft landing” of relatively low inflation and unemployment after the chaotic economic conditions of the pandemic. Trump said during a debate that the Biden administration “destroyed the economy,” but he’s actually inheriting one in pretty good shape.
Is America as respected throughout the world as it was?
The best measure of world opinion of America is the Pew Research Center’s annual Global Attitudes Survey. The spring 2024 survey found international views on the U.S. are broadly positive, with a median of 54% favorable and 31% unfavorable across 34 countries. The highest was Poland, with 86% favorable, and the lowest, Tunisia, with 87% unfavorable. These numbers disprove Trump’s frequent contention that “the world is laughing at us.” In fact, surveys found views of the U.S. dropped under Trump and rebounded when Joe Biden was elected, with foreigners having low confidence in Trump in particular.
Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we’re as strong as we were four years ago?
There’s no single benchmark to cover the most nebulous of Reagan’s measurements. Biden liked to brag that the U.S. is not at war for the first time since 2001, though U.S. troops remain in combat zones around the world. Israel and Hamas recently reached a ceasefire agreement, but that deal’s survival is uncertain, and Ukraine and Russia remain at war. On the domestic front, the U.S. recently had a terrorist attack in New Orleans inspired by ISIS, while a 2023 attack at a Texas mall was inspired by white supremacist ideology. During the campaign, Trump vowed to end the Ukraine war on day one, although his advisers now say it may take months. Trump has also signaled potential conflicts with Greenland, Canada, Panama and Mexico.
Those are just the questions Reagan asked, however. If you’re looking for other benchmarks, you could start with home ownership, which remains a problem for many Americans. According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — the one most American families get for their home — was just below 7% in the first full week of 2025. That’s higher than the historic lows of just under 3% in 2021 and comparable to rates last seen in 2008.
Those are just the questions Reagan asked, however. If you’re looking for other benchmarks, you could start with home ownership.
Another benchmark often cited by Republicans is the national debt. According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the national debt currently stands at $36.2 trillion. In his first term, Trump added a cumulative $8.4 trillion to the national debt through his tax cut law and other executive actions, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Then there’s a benchmark that Trump himself has set: security at the southern border. In December, Customs and Border Protection reported 47,300 unauthorized border crossings, only slightly higher than in November, which was the lowest number during the Biden administration. Experts think that unauthorized border crossings are already on track to be “historically low” for the first half of this year. This contradicts Trump’s campaign-trail claim that Biden “decided to open up our border.”
According to polls, many Americans are concerned about the future of democracy in the country, especially given Trump’s authoritarian rhetoric. On that front, Freedom House, a D.C.-based pro-democracy think tank, gave the U.S. a score of 83 out of 100 on its freedom index in 2024, down from 86 in 2020. That puts it in 57th place, tied with South Korea, Croatia, Panama and Romania.
Lastly, we can also just ask the voters what they think. In December, a Gallup poll found that 79% of Americans were dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time, while only 19% were satisfied. That’s low but generally in keeping with the much lower satisfaction on this poll since the coronavirus pandemic began in 2020.
Overall, the country that Trump is inheriting from Biden is in pretty good shape on everything from the economy to democracy, but Americans remain unhappy due to issues such as inflation and home prices, and long-term problems remain.
Trump was able to ride that dissatisfaction back into the White House. But to make much progress on those issues requires overcoming his thin hold on Congress and a current lack of plans to act. Meantime, some of his plans that do exist — for mass deportation, tax cuts for the wealthy and across-the-board tariffs — could make some of these problems worse.
We may not need four years to see if things are better under Trump.
