Somehow, the 2024 Republican presidential primary campaign has been both thoroughly clarifying and utterly vapid. Apart from some minor disagreements that weren’t explored in depth, primary voters could easily conclude that there were almost no policy differences among the many candidates who ran. Yet with Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary, we have a clearer view than ever of the Republican electorate.
The GOP isn’t a monolith; it includes some voters who emphatically reject Trump and everything he represents and others who have some issues with him but will back him nonetheless in November. But by overwhelming margins, this isn’t just Donald Trump’s party; it’s a party of Trumpists, in which his support has only broadened and deepened as his rhetoric and his intentions become uglier and more mentally addled.
With each new indictment, each new piece of fascist rhetoric, each new racist outburst, Republican voters’ conviction that Trump should be their standard-bearer has only grown.
Republican voters had the opportunity to rally behind any one of many extremely conservative presidential candidates. A few were clowns, but most were experienced politicians whose commitment to the Republican cause couldn’t be questioned. To all of them, the party’s base said, “We want Trump.”
We’ve been told so many times that it’s unseemly to insult such voters. Their grievances are justified, their pain is real, and one shouldn’t condescend to them, lest they become even more radical (if such a thing were possible).
If anyone is tempted to wonder, “Who are these Trump voters, really?” the answer is that we already know. We know not because of the innumerable news stories in which they aired their grievances to respectful hearings; it seems like every diner in the entire Rust Belt has hosted a gaggle of reporters curious to view the Trump voter in his supposed native habitat. We know because with each new indictment, each new piece of fascist rhetoric, each new racist outburst, Republican voters’ conviction that Trump should be their standard-bearer has only grown. A year ago, the FiveThirtyEight average of polls put him at 42% among GOP primary voters; just before the New Hampshire primary results, he stood at 68%.
Nikki Haley couldn’t have asked for a better state to make her stand in than New Hampshire, where independents can vote in either party’s primary, there are relatively small numbers of the evangelicals who make up Trump’s most devoted base, and a spirit of cantankerousness has often worked to the benefit of challengers and insurgents. Yet even that wasn’t enough.
Haley may have done better than many expected, but according to exit polls, her performance was built on the independent voters who won’t be able to vote in most other GOP contests. Three-quarters of Republicans cast their votes for Trump. That landslide confirms the central contradiction at the heart of Haley’s candidacy and those of all the candidates who have already dropped out: Most Republicans just weren’t going to be moved from their support for the former president. That all those candidates got visibly uncomfortable every time they were called upon to criticize Trump may be a sign of cowardice, but it also demonstrated that they knew exactly what their party’s voters think.
The kind of Republicans who supported Haley in New Hampshire get little attention.
Trump supporters may believe we need less immigration or that Joe Biden is too old or that abortion should be outlawed. But they had the chance to get behind more than a dozen other candidates who share those beliefs, and most of them said, “No thanks.” The candidate facing 91 criminal indictments, who incited an insurrection, who echoes genocidal dictators, who embodies every repellent character flaw parents warn their children against? He’s the one they want, and he’s what they’re going to get.
We know those voters by now, how they believe the conspiracy theories, delight in Trump’s rancid impulses and yearn for a strongman to lead them. On the other hand, the kind of Republicans who supported Haley in New Hampshire get little attention. There are precious few lengthy profiles or deep dives exploring how they were affected by recent history, how they came to oppose Trump or what sort of candidate would speak to their dreams and resentments. But there should be — they may be a minority of their party, yet they still matter.
And while we’re at it, it would be a good idea to talk to Biden voters, too. They may not be as colorful as Trump voters, but their views are just as worthy of respect and consideration. Maybe even more so.
