The evidence that President Joe Biden has a problem with young voters just got stronger. A new poll from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School shows that young people are significantly less inclined to vote in the 2024 election than they were at roughly this point ahead of the 2020 election.
In the Institute of Politics poll, which was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 6, just 49% of 18- to 29-year-olds across the political spectrum said they “definitely” planned to vote next year. That’s a marked drop from the fall of 2019, when 57% said they “definitely” planned to vote. That drop is far more pronounced among Republicans (who fell from 66% to 56%) than Democrats (who fell from 68% to 66%). But the plurality of 18- to 29-year-olds are independents, and their commitment to “definitely” voting dropped from 41% to 31%. That’s more likely to hurt Democrats, as young independents tend to vote more Democratic. And the trend was especially pronounced among racial minority groups who skew Democratic: Young Black Americans dropped from 50% to 38% from 2019 to 2023, and young Hispanic Americans fell from 56% to 40%.
Young voters were crucial to Democrats’ victories in 2020 and 2022.
In a hypothetical match-up against Donald Trump in the poll, Biden leads by 11 points among young Americans, 41%-30%. (Thirteen percent of respondents say they are undecided, and an additional 15% say they wouldn’t vote.) But when potential independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joe Manchin and Cornel West are added to the offerings, Biden’s lead is reduced to just 4 points.
Polling a year out from the election should be taken with many grains of salt. These numbers aren’t predictive of the vote; they’re only a snapshot in time. Any number of factors could drive up interest in voting overall, or Biden’s numbers specifically, between now and Election Day. But the numbers certainly aren’t promising for the Democrats. Young voters were crucial to Democrats’ victories in 2020 and 2022. They don’t need to flip to Trump in order to deal Biden a lethal blow; disproportionate declines in turnout would be enough.
Part of Biden’s ongoing struggle with young voters stems from the same vexing riddle Biden faces with Americans as a whole. Despite strong economic growth, a low unemployment rate, rising wages and slowing inflation, recent surveys show that Americans have a negative outlook on the economy, and in this new poll, young voters trust Trump over Biden on handling the economy by a 15-point margin.
It’s more difficult to figure out the fallout from the biggest news story at the time the survey was conducted: the Israel-Hamas war. By the time the IOP ran this survey, raucous protests at odds with the Biden administration’s position on Israel broke out across the country. The poll reflects the way that issue divides young Democrats, 46% of whom trust Biden more on the issue, 9% of whom trust Trump more and 45% of whom say neither. Among independents, 56% trust neither Biden nor Trump. In light of threats from pro-Palestinian activist groups’ saying they may withhold their votes for Biden over his Israel policy, it’s possible that some of Biden’s weakening among independents could be attributed to this issue. But the Israeli-Palestinian conflict very well may be a lot less salient in news discourse and in voters’ minds in a year.
Some of the downturn in voter interest among young Americans could be a function of Biden’s being the incumbent rather than Trump. In the run-up to 2020, young voters were bombarded daily with news stories about extremist right-wing policies and plots, racist and authoritarian rhetoric, and impropriety and corruption in the federal government. Motivation to oust a dangerous incumbent is more likely to pique voter interest than retaining a less existentially threatening incumbent. Additionally, Biden’s decisive 2020 victory may have led some younger voters to believe that Trump has been defanged, particularly as he faces up to four criminal trials between now and the next election. What remains to be seen is whether the specter of a plausible Trump return would ultimately revive interest among young voters closer to November.
The optimistic way to read the data is that as Election Day nears and the real stakes of a second Trump term grow clearer, more young Americans will recognize the urgency of planning for voting. But given consistent polling showing Biden weak among young voters, it is in the president's interest to take steps to energize this part of the Democratic base through fresh and bold policy proposals. Relying on fear of Trump alone is a risky strategy.
