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In mid-January 2008, it was an open question as to who would win the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. Republicans, however, had a preference.
Writing at the time for National Review, Byron York reported on a Barack Obama campaign rally he attended in South Carolina with a Republican friend. Watching the candidate, seeing the crowd, and hearing the message, York’s Republican friend said at the time, “Oh, s--t.”
The report added that some Republicans were hoping that Hillary Clinton would ultimately prevail because “running against the man on stage at the convention center would be a hard, hard campaign.”
In other words, in 2008, Republicans took a long look at Obama and saw him as a formidable opponent. They were, for lack of a better word, scared that they just wouldn’t be able to defeat the Illinois Democrat — and those fears were proved true months later when Obama dispatched a popular and respected war hero with relative ease.
Sixteen years later, it’s probably fair to say that Republicans aren’t scared at all of President Joe Biden. On the contrary, it appears their greatest fear is that the Democratic incumbent might be convinced to abandon his re-election plans. The Washington Post reported:
Donald Trump and his campaign hope President Biden stays in the race, according to four people familiar with private discussions, believing they can beat him even with Trump’s felony conviction and other charges. ... Trump advisers were privately stunned at how poorly Biden performed, believing he would be a stronger debater, people familiar with the matter said.
They have plenty of company. Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump insisted last week that if Democrats were to choose a new nominee, it would be an affront to the democratic process. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina argued soon after that Biden’s refusal to withdraw is “very good news” not just for Trump, but also for “the entire down-ballot Republican team.”
In case that weren’t quite enough, the far-right Heritage Foundation has indicated that it’s eyeing steps that would make it “extraordinarily difficult” for Democrats to replace Biden on the general election ballot.
There’s no great mystery here. The political dynamic is not subtle. In the wake of the presidential debate 11 days ago, Republicans and their allies have come to believe that Biden would be easier to beat in November than the other possible Democratic contenders.
It’s at this point when the incumbent president’s allies are likely saying, “Yeah, but Republicans might very well be wrong.” The benefit of this response is that it’s true.
Not only does Trump have terrible political instincts, but the GOP has been wrong about questions like these plenty of times before. In fact, it’s not especially unusual for partisan players and operatives — folks with extensive experience in professional politics — to embrace all kinds of false assumptions. In October 2016, a striking number of Republicans concluded that there was simply no way Americans would elect Trump to the presidency after the “Access Hollywood” recording reached the public.
Those conclusions were mistaken, and Trump won soon after. It’s entirely possible that many of these same GOP officials, certain that Biden is simply unelectable, are wrong again.
But as Democrats weigh their options, the fact that Republicans appear even more excited about Biden’s candidacy than many in the president’s own party seems like a relevant detail.