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U.S. House members were away from Capitol Hill last week, and according to a great many reports, federal lawmakers got an earful from their constituents. NBC News reported:
At events from Georgia and Wisconsin to Oklahoma and Oregon, House Republicans faced sometimes-hostile crowds furious about the sweeping budget cuts and mass firings of federal workers that President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency are carrying out. With the House on recess and many lawmakers returning to their districts, this week was the first opportunity for them to hear directly from constituents about Trump and Musk’s scorched-earth strategy to cut spending and shrink the federal government’s footprint.
I’ve lost count of how many reports along these lines have been published in recent days, with Republican members facing angry crowds filled with voters who want them to stand up to the DOGE agenda, and with Democratic members facing similarly angry crowds filled with voters who want them to fight the White House with even greater vigor.
For those mindful of recent political history, one parallel keeps coming up.
“The raucous town halls conjured memories of those in 2009 — the start of the tea party movement — when constituents protested over Democrats’ massive health care bill, which became the Affordable Care Act,” NBC News report added. “The next year, a red wave gave House Republicans a staggering 63-seat gain and swept Democrats out of power.”
That’s definitely the sort of observation that should give Republican incumbents on Capitol Hill pause. The GOP majority is already vanishingly small, especially in the House, and given the obvious public tumult on display at these town halls, coupled with Trump’s falling approval ratings, it’s difficult for the party to look ahead to the 2026 midterm cycle with confidence.
Making matters worse, however, are the differences between 2010 and 2025.
Fifteen years ago, Democratic members faced raucous crowds as tea partyers pushed back against the party’s agenda, but elements of the movement were far from bottom-up: Well-financed organizations, fueled by investments from wealthy conservatives, helped lead the charge. What’s more, the earlier protests featured furious voters who relied on absurdities such as talk of “death panels” and Barack Obama’s birth certificate.
In contrast, in 2025, lawmakers are facing organic pushback that, by all accounts, is genuinely grassroots-oriented, featuring voters who have reality-based concerns. Indeed, perhaps the most useful parallel is actually 2017, when the Trump White House and congressional Republicans launched an ill-fated campaign to destroy the Affordable Care Act.
A year later, Democrats gained 40 seats, ended the GOP majority in the House, and put the House speaker’s gavel in Nancy Pelosi’s hands.
If this recent history doesn’t make Republicans nervous, they’re not paying close enough attention.