Debate reinforced Biden’s and Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities

As 2024 got underway, Democratic officials were feeling even more anxious than usual about the presidential race, as polls showed President Joe Biden in a relatively weak position against Donald Trump. When The New York Times’ Ezra Klein argued in February that it was time for the incumbent to abandon his re-election plans, his case ricocheted like a pinball throughout the party.

Biden and his team saw his State of the Union address as an opportunity to answer doubts — and the president rose to the occasion. In an impressive display, the Democrat presented a compelling vision in a forceful and compelling way. Over the course of a single evening on Capitol Hill, Biden silenced critics and reminded voters why they elected him in the first place.

Ezra Klein returned to the subject, a month after his provocative argument generated so much conversation, writing with a not-so-subtle dig at himself, “If the Joe Biden who showed up to deliver the State of the Union address last week is the Joe Biden who shows up for the rest of the campaign, you’re not going to have any more of those weak-kneed pundits suggesting he’s not up to running for re-election.”

Three months later, the circumstances were similar. With national and state-based polls showing Biden trailing his felonious rival, it was once again time for the president to step up, deliver a strong and convincing performance on a national stage and knock down questions about his readiness, just as he did in early March.

In the first presidential debate of the cycle, that’s not what happened. As an NBC News report summarized:

But as important as this was, and as Democrats start googling whether it's even possible to replace a nominee, Trump’s weaknesses were on display, too.

Ahead of the debate, the presumptive Republican nominee was widely seen as a scandal-plagued liar who lives in his own reality, who has no vision for the future, and who has no defenses for the many catastrophes from his failed first term. After the debate, the former president left little doubt that he’s still a scandal-plagued liar who lives in his own reality, who has no vision for the future, and who has no defenses for the many catastrophes from his failed first term.

A New York Times report noted overnight, “Mr. Trump was confident and forceful, even as he let loose a stream of misleading attacks and falsehoods.”

Well, yes, I suppose so — though as a rule, it’s easy for a candidate to be “confident and forceful” when he abandons the pretense of honesty and lies uncontrollably. Indeed, winning debates is surprisingly easy when candidates decide they can say anything and expect to get away with it.

I don’t doubt that much of the political world’s focus will be on Biden’s halting performance, but Trump’s brazenly dishonest demagoguery mattered just as much.

A handful of other takeaways from my notes:

* These circumstances sure do seem familiar. For a variety of reasons, incumbent presidents invariably lose the first debate during their re-election campaigns. Team Biden hoped to break the “curse.” It didn’t.

* Biden is a better president than candidate. Some people excel in job interviews but struggle to actually do the job. For the Democratic president, it’s the opposite.

* Democratic panic is poised to get much worse. If you think Democrats’ overnight anxiety was overwhelming, it’s about to reach a whole new level. I’m reminded of a smart piece Dave Weigel wrote for Slate 12 years ago, after the first Obama/Romney debate.

“[T]he first presidential debate has come to remind me of Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace,” Weigel wrote in 2012. “Democrats walked out of the theater/turned off the TV saying ‘huh, well, I wanted it to be better.’ After a few days of talking to friends, it changes from a disappointment into the worst piece of crap in human history.”

As chatter about last night’s debate spreads and voters who didn’t tune in hear the scuttlebutt, the feeding frenzy will intensify.