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When it comes to the Republicans’ debt ceiling strategy, it can be difficult to gauge the appropriate level of concern. GOP officials are making an extraordinary threat — they’re prepared to impose a deliberate economic catastrophe unless their unstated demands are met — but even the most knowledgeable observers find it difficult to answer the underlying question: Would Republicans shoot their hostage?
For many, including much of Wall Street, the assumption is that there will be plenty of drama between now and early June, but the relevant players will avert a deliberate disaster. These beliefs aren’t just the result of pollyannish wishful thinking; they’re bolstered by comments from GOP leaders.
“At the risk of sounding patriotic here, you just can’t have the country default,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told NBC News in December. “It just can’t happen.” Two weeks ago, the Kentucky Republican went on to say that the United States “must never default on its debt,” adding: “It never has, it never will.”
It’s tempting to see quotes like these and breathe a sigh of relief. The next several months will be deeply unpleasant, but the more GOP leaders concede the country “just can’t” default, the easier it is to believe that when all is said and done, Republicans will not actually trash the full faith and credit of the United States.
There’s just one small word, however, that the party keeps using in ways that give me pause. That word is “but.”
“We’re not going to default. We’re not,” Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas told Axios two weeks ago. “But we need to have an honest conversation ... [about] spending money we don’t have.”
There was a disconnect between the first part of that quote and the second. The first sentence was reassuring: There won’t be a default. The latter part, however, started with the word “but,” which necessarily raised doubts about the reliability of the first part.
Similarly, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appeared on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, and host Margaret Brennan asked the congressman if he’s prepared to “guarantee” that the United States won’t default on its obligations. According to the transcript, the California Republican responded:
“Listen, we’re not going to default. But let me be very honest with you right now. So we hit the statutory date. But let’s take a pause. We have hundreds of billions of dollars. This won’t come to fruition until sometime in June. So the responsible thing to do is sit down like two adults and start having that discussion.”
First, responsible adults don’t threaten deliberate economic catastrophe unless their unstated demands are met. Second, I have no idea what “we have hundreds of billions of dollars” means in this context.
But even putting these details aside, there was that word again: “Listen, we’re not going to default. But ...”
When assurances that the party will ultimately do the right thing are followed by a caveat, suggesting the party might not do the right thing, the assurances are meaningless — and the cause for alarm increases.