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Sen. Joe Manchin has kept the political world guessing for months about his political future, and this afternoon, the conservative West Virginia Democrat added new clarity to his plans: Manchin will not seek re-election.
The incumbent senator announced the news in an online video:
Given the frequency with which Manchin has been a thorn in the side of his party, it’s likely that there will be elements of the Democratic base that will applaud his decision. But let’s not forget that West Virginia has become a reliably red state — Donald Trump won the state by an outlandish 39 points — and Manchin’s retirement all but guarantees that Republicans will flip this seat.
Indeed, Montana Sen. Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in response to Manchin’s announcement, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”
The Democratic advantage in the Senate is already vanishingly small — there are currently 49 Senate Democrats, who work with two independents who caucus with the majority party — and there are several incumbents running next year in GOP-friendly states. Manchin’s decision complicates an already challenging map.
To be sure, even if the incumbent Democrat sought another term in West Virginia, there was no reason to expect him to succeed. On the contrary, recent polling suggested he would've been a clear underdog. But with Manchin stepping down, the race to fill his seat is unlikely to even be competitive: The winner of the Republican primary can expect to prevail.
What’s more, while Manchin isn’t running for another Senate term, he appeared to leave the door wide open to a different kind of candidacy in the near future. From today’s video:
“After months of deliberation and long conversations with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia. I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”
He added, “We need to take back America and not let this divisive hatred further pull us apart.”
There’s no great mystery as to what the outgoing senator was referring to. In recent months, Manchin has made unsubtle references to a possible third-party presidential bid, telling Fox News last month, “Why not have options?”
Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah has apparently told the West Virginian more than once that if Manchin ran for president on a third-party ticket, “it would only elect Trump.” The conservative Democrat has nevertheless spent much of the year leaving the door wide open to a national candidacy.
Manchin told MSNBC last month, “I don’t think that democracy as we know it would withstand another Trump administration.” The West Virginian is nevertheless considering a third-party presidential campaign that might very well make another Trump administration more likely.