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Over the weekend, when there was no longer any doubt that Democrats would maintain their narrow majority in the U.S. Senate, Politico reported on President Joe Biden’s upbeat mood — and his focus on the chamber’s one unresolved contest.
After the Senate was called, an upbeat Biden told reporters from a conference in Cambodia that “I feel good and I’m looking forward to the next couple years.” He said Democrats remain highly motivated to reelect [Georgia Sen. Raphael] Warnock. “It’s always better at 51” seats, Biden said.
In the immediate aftermath of Election Day last week, much of the political world was focused on the unresolved Senate races and competing scenarios involving Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. If Republicans won two of the three, there would be a GOP majority in the upper chamber in the next Congress. If they split the Arizona and Nevada races, majority control would come down to the runoff in Georgia.
But after the Arizona and Nevada races were called for the Democratic incumbents, the dynamic changed: The majority was no longer within reach for the GOP. No matter what happens in Georgia, Republicans will be in the minority.
So, maybe the Georgia runoff isn’t that important anymore? Those making that assumption are making an important mistake.
Take the Senate’s power-sharing agreement, for example. As a practical matter, Democrats have a functioning majority in the Senate because Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties, but their majority is the result of a compromise deal that was negotiated — slowly — by party leaders early last year.
This agreement gives the parties equal membership on committees, and creates procedural dynamics that make it more difficult to advance bills and nominations to the floor. Why is a majority “always better at 51,” as Biden put it? Because with 51 seats, the power-sharing agreement goes away, and Democrats can govern in the Senate as a proper majority party.
There’s also Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to consider: In some instances over the past two years, the centrist Democrats have balked — at times individually — ahead of key votes. With a 51-seat majority, if Manchin or Sinema were to balk, party leaders could move forward anyway.
Similarly, there have been times in the current Congress in which a member has been absent for entirely legitimate reasons. In those instances, however, Democratic leaders have occasionally had to curtail their plans on the Senate floor, because 49 votes proved insufficient. One more member offers some procedural insurance.
There’s also the 2024 cycle to consider: The next round of elections looks rough for Democrats, and the larger their majority in the next Congress, the better positioned they’ll be for the Congress that follows.
Finally, there’s the question of whether folks in the great state of Georgia want to be represented by Herschel Walker — who has been credibly described as being the single worst Senate candidate in recent memory.
The runoff is Dec. 6. Watch this space.