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Early last week, Rep. Jim Jordan’s odds of becoming House speaker looked pretty good. The right-wing Ohio Republican certainly had intraparty detractors, but Jordan and his allies appeared confident, at least briefly, that the votes would come together when it counted.
We now know, of course, that those hopes were misguided, and Jordan failed. But the optimism was based in part on an important assumption: The GOP’s so-called “moderates” might not have agreed with Jordan, but they would ultimately back down — because they always ultimately back down. NBC News reported ahead of the first floor vote on Jordan’s bid:
Some aides expect centrist Republicans to fold and back Jordan, saying they have a reputation for caving when push comes to shove. “The people opposing him are moderates. Either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine,” one GOP aide said.
The same afternoon, an unnamed House Republican told a Washington Post reporter that Jordan would succeed because “moderates always cave.” The member added that it’s “a tale as old as time.”
Soon after, something remarkable happened: The so-called “moderates” didn’t cave. Sure, several House Republicans from competitive districts toed the party line and voted for Jordan — even after saying they wouldn’t — but many did not, and their opposition to their party’s nominee kept the gavel out of the hands of the right-wing House Judiciary Committee chairman’s hands.
I’ll confess that I was surprised. In fact, I privately predicted that Jordan would succeed precisely because I expected GOP members from competitive districts to succumb to partisan pressure.
When they didn’t, it was a pleasant surprise. I started putting together some notes for a MaddowBlog post giving credit where credit was due. Rank-and-file conservative Republicans practically dared their not-quite-as-conservative colleagues to balk at Jordan, and they ended up doing exactly that. Maybe the so-called “moderates” had some backbone after all.
Or perhaps not.
How many of the alleged House GOP “centrists” ended up opposing House Speaker Mike Johnson’s far-right bid? Literally none of them. They could’ve exercised their power, but they all went along with their party’s wishes instead. As New York magazine’s Jon Chait summarized:
“Moderate” Republicans, as the media has absurdly taken to labeling conservative Republicans who have qualms about seizing power through non-electoral means, have shown through the last few weeks precisely how serious they are about their principles. They are willing to fight for them, for a short period of time, before arriving at the same position as their right-wing coalition partners.
Johnson prevailed, Chait added, the same way these disputes are usually resolved: with “the least extreme Republicans capitulating to the most extreme ones.”
Those of us who assumed the so-called “moderates” would cave were right — even if we were off by a week.