On immigration, McConnell prepares to bow to Trump’s demands

The original plan was for the United States to provide support for our Ukrainian allies as part of the West’s pushback against the Russian invasion. Congressional Republicans rejected that plan, saying they’d only consider an aid package if Democrats agreed to far-right immigration and border policies.

The hostage-taking strategy was clearly radical. It was also incredibly effective. As regular readers know, congressional Democrats not only agreed to months of talks, they also made a great many concessions in the hopes of striking a compromise deal.

Several Republicans were surprised by just how far Democrats were willing to go to reach an agreement. The party’s lead negotiator, Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, boasted last week that the package would be “by far the most conservative border security bill in four decades.” Around the same time, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina assured his GOP colleagues that they simply won’t “get a better deal” than the one Democrats were prepared to accept.

Democrats hoped that Republicans would take “yes” for an answer. As NBC News reported, that’s not happening.

To be sure, McConnell has championed both the negotiations and the burgeoning compromise. Indeed, the Kentucky senator has thrown his support behind robust aid to Ukraine and the details of the nearly complete deal on border and immigration policy.

So what’s the problem? First, House Republicans — the ones who said they wanted a border deal — have ruled out supporting the emerging border deal. Second, many, if not most, of the GOP members in the Senate have decided McConnell’s opinions on the matter are irrelevant.

Third, Donald Trump is publicly and privately lobbying his party to kill the bipartisan compromise.

And fourth, McConnell, who has been willing to occasionally ignore the former president’s legislative priorities, is now prepared to bow to Trump’s demands. As Punchbowl News reported overnight, the Senate minority leader told his members, in reference to the party’s presumptive 2024 nominee, “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.”

It’s a striking perspective. On the one hand, Republicans say they’re desperate to address the border. On the other hand, Trump has told them not to pass anything, even as Democrats agree to give GOP negotiators what they want.

Republicans, at least for now, appear ready to resolve the tension by abandoning their own governing goals and going with Trump’s preferred election-year strategy.

The party could try to solve a problem they claim to care about. It’s choosing not to.

Does this mean that Republicans are prepared to deliberately let problems at the border fester, while simultaneously making it easier for Russia to take part of eastern Europe by force? Yes, that’s precisely what it means.

As a tactical matter, GOP officials, following Trump’s lead, appear eager to create a campaign issue. The thinking is, the party’s incumbents and candidates will go to voters and effectively say, “The border is a mess so vote for Republicans.”

Whether the party appreciates this or not, the GOP has simultaneously handed Democrats a related talking point. In fact, it’s increasingly easy to believe Democrats will go to those same voters and effectively say, “The border is a mess so don’t vote for the Republicans who refused to do something about it.”

In terms of the timeline, as of a few days ago, those negotiating the security package intended to unveil the text of their agreement this week, with a Senate vote likely next week. As of now, that schedule has apparently been replaced with uncertainty — about what the GOP wants, what the future holds for Ukraine’s existential crisis, and whether Republicans will ever support legislation to improve the nation’s immigration and border policies.