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In the days following Election Day 2024, it was clear that Republicans would control the White House and the U.S. Senate, but there was still some lingering ambiguity about the U.S. House. As of last week, those doubts were resolved, and it became clear that the GOP would control all of the levers of federal power.
For Republicans, that’s the good news. The bad news is that the party’s majority in the lower chamber is poised to be frustratingly small.
As things stand, the House GOP will have 219 seats in the new Congress — one more than is necessary for a majority — though there are still three races that have not yet been decided. As a result, we know that the Republican majority will be between one and four seats. (If I had to guess, I’d say that the GOP will eventually end up with 221 seats, but don’t hold me to that.)
At first blush, while Republican leaders are no doubt pleased to keep their majority, they have reason to be discouraged by the numbers: As of last week, the party had 221 seats in a chamber that has struggled to complete even the most basic legislative tasks. Indeed, thanks to its vanishingly small majority, the GOP hasn’t even been able to pass some of its own bills, which House Democrats were powerless to stop.
But let’s take a step further and note that while House Republicans have currently won 219 seats for the next Congress, that total includes:
- Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, who resigned last week and won’t return to Capitol Hill;
- Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida, who’s giving up his seat to join Donald Trump’s White House team; and
- Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who’s giving up her seat to become the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
In the days following Election Day, House Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly pleaded with the president-elect not to raid his House conference for administration positions — not because they were unsuited for the jobs, but because the Louisiana Republican didn’t want to see his conference shrink. Trump tapped a few members anyway.
Yes, these members will probably — but not definitely — be replaced with other Republicans. But as the new Congress gets underway, the House GOP will have a tiny majority that will barely exist as some members give up their seats for Trump administration jobs.
Passing legislation will be incredibly difficult. Electing a speaker on Day One might pose some challenges, too. Watch this space.