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About a week ago, Republican Rep. Michael McCaul appeared on Fox News and explained why he and his party were prepared to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The point, the Texan said, was to “send a message.”
A week later, the message was received, and it was a brutally embarrassing one for the GOP. NBC News reported:
A monthslong GOP campaign to oust Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas collapsed in the House on Tuesday after Democrats and a trio of skeptical Republicans voted to reject a resolution to impeach him over his handling of the southern border. The vote was 214-216, making a stunning blow for Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and House Republicans who have blamed the Biden administration for record migrant crossings and made border security a central campaign issue.
In case this isn’t already obvious, it’s worth noting periodically that Republicans have uncovered literally no evidence of the DHS secretary committing high crimes; the party’s impeachment hearings were a joke; and the impeachment effort has been condemned by constitutional experts from the left, right, and center, senators from both parties, some prominent voices in conservative media, and former Homeland Security secretaries from both Democratic and Republican administrations.
By any fair measure, the effort itself was, and is, a dramatic abuse.
But the fact that the attempted abuse failed makes the debacle even more incredible.
As the dust settles on this fiasco, we learned a few things from the vote.
1. House Republican leaders still can’t count. It’s a problem that the resolution failed, but it’s a bigger problem that House Speaker Mike Johnson and his GOP leadership team didn’t know it was going to fail. As recently as Monday, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer — whose job it is to line up and count votes — boasted to NBC News that he was “confident” there would be 218 Republican votes. He was wrong.
The New York Times reported, “Hard-right Republicans are livid and baffled that the House leadership did not seem to know if they had the votes on impeaching Mayorkas.” The article quoted Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina saying, “I would have thought that they would know that. It isn’t that hard.”
2. The House GOP’s so-called “moderate” wing is vanishingly small. House Republicans set out to impeach a Cabinet secretary for the first time in 148 years, despite failing to make a coherent case against him. Roughly 98% of the House GOP conference effectively said, “Yep, sounds good.”
During a related effort in November, eight GOP members balked at the idea of impeaching Mayorkas. In this latest vote, that total was, for all intents and purposes, down to just three. The next time you see someone reference the House Republicans’ “moderate” wing, remember that all the members of this wing can fit comfortably in a midsized sedan.
3. This isn’t over. In theory, following this humiliating display, GOP members would lick their wounds, take stock, and move on. In practice, it’s far more likely to see the failed vote as the first of two attempts.
NBC News’ report added, “After a dramatic scene on the floor where leaders tried to whip votes, the roll call ended in a rare 215-215 tie. A member of GOP leadership, Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, changed his vote to no at the last minute so that Republicans can bring the issue up again when Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., returns from cancer treatment.”
Indeed, the House speaker’s office confirmed in a written statement that Republican leaders “fully intend to bring Articles of Impeachment against Secretary Mayorkas back to the floor when we have the votes for passage.”
And when, pray tell, will that be? Watch this space.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.