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When it comes to abortion policy, the Democrats’ election season message is pretty straightforward: Republicans already took a sledgehammer to Americans’ reproductive rights, the argument goes, and if given a chance, GOP officials will make matters worse with a national abortion ban.
As a NOTUS report noted this week, the Republican response is similarly simple: The party is telling voters they need not fear an abortion ban passed at the federal level.
Two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and let states decide their abortion policies, GOP lawmakers say they’re happy to leave it there — for now. As their Democratic opponents accuse them of undermining women’s rights on the campaign trail, Republicans are making a concerted effort to avoid discussing any federal abortion restrictions.
Republican Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, for example, told the outlet, “If you read the Dobbs decision, it’s clear that abortion is now a state issue, to be regulated by the states, not the federal government.”
Much of the GOP has adopted the same line. Some Republicans say they don’t have the votes to pass a national ban, with others in the party say they aren’t prepared to take such a politically radioactive step.
“Thinking about the politics, it doesn’t seem like that’s really on the table,” Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas added.
For abortion rights advocates all of this might seem at least somewhat encouraging. GOP policymakers across much of the country have already imposed radical restrictions on reproductive rights, but if Republicans are now reluctant to pursue a national ban, it ensures that there will still be options for Americans seeking abortion care.
There are, however, a few problems with the latest GOP assurances.
For one thing, many of the Republicans saying that a national abortion ban won’t pass are the same Republicans who’ve endorsed national abortion bans in the recent past. For another, GOP lawmakers can talk a good game about leaving abortion policy to states, but it was literally last week when they voted for a defense package filled with new federal restrictions on reproductive rights.
But the party’s credibility problem also hangs overhead.
Circling back to our earlier coverage, some of us still remember the 2020 presidential debate in which Joe Biden said the Roe v. Wade precedent was on the ballot, and Donald Trump immediately pushed back. “Why is it on the ballot?” the then-Republican incumbent asked. “Why is it on the ballot? It’s not on the ballot.”
The same day, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa insisted the likelihood of Roe being overturned was “very minimal.” She added, “I don’t see that happening.” Republican Sen. Thom Tillis used similar rhetoric during his re-election campaign in North Carolina.
The deception at least made tactical sense: The more voters realized how much damage an even-more-conservative Supreme Court was likely to do, the more Republican officials and candidates risked an electoral backlash.
And so, many in the GOP were quick to offer insincere assurances. “Just keep voting for Republicans,” the party effectively said. “There won’t be dramatic changes. Trust us. Democrats are just trying to scare you. Don’t listen to them. The status quo is fine, and it will remain intact.”
When Republicans said this four years ago, they were wrong. As the party embraces eerily similar assurances in 2024, it’s tough to blame voters who’ll be skeptical.