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A couple of weeks ago, House Speaker Mike Johnson appeared on CNBC to promote his party’s domestic policy megabill — the inaptly named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — though the Louisiana Republican’s sales pitch included a warning of sorts.
“If we don’t deliver on this ... then we’re not going to have the House majority,” the GOP leader said, “So this team has to stay in power ... and it all begins with the One Big Beautiful Bill.”
As a matter of political strategy, Johnson’s pitch might sound sensible: Americans put Republicans in a position of power, and if the party fails to deliver on its key legislative package after months of effort, it might seem realistic to think the GOP would pay a political price.
But these assumptions are rooted in the idea that the public actually likes the Republicans’ far-right reconciliation package. As The Washington Post reported, there’s fresh evidence to the contrary:
As Senate Republicans race to pass President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a plurality of Americans oppose the sweeping tax-and-spending legislation, with mixed opinions on specific provisions and concerns about its impact on the national debt and Medicaid, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month.
In fairness, the national survey found that many Americans are not yet familiar the legislation or its details, but among those with opinions of the GOP package, 42% oppose the bill, while only 23% support it.
What’s more, this isn’t the only relevant data to consider. The latest KFF Health Tracking Poll found that the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is viewed unfavorably by nearly two-thirds of American adults. Support for the legislation deteriorated further when respondents were told of some of the bill’s consequences, including Republicans’ proposed Medicaid cuts.
A week earlier, a national poll from Quinnipiac University found 53% of Americans support the legislation, while 27% oppose it. The same survey found that a plurality wants Congress to spend more on Medicaid — which is the opposite of what GOP officials are trying to do.
For many congressional Republicans, data like this might very well be irrelevant: They represent ruby-red states or districts, giving them the freedom to vote however they want, confident in the knowledge that they’re nearly certain to win re-election anyway. For that matter, the president might also not care about public attitudes, since he’s ineligible to run for a third term.
But for GOP incumbents in competitive districts, it’s a different story. If they’re on the fence about what to do the next time their party’s megabill comes up for a vote, the fact that many Americans really seem to dislike it should weigh heavily on their minds.
All of which brings us back to the House speaker, who told CNBC, “If we don’t deliver on this ... then we’re not going to have the House majority.” It’s a pitch rooted in the idea that voters will reward Republicans for delivering policies that voters don’t like, which is every bit as dubious as it sounds.