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The Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty spoke to one of Donald Trump’s campaign strategists this week, who raised a point about the 2024 race that likely gives Republicans hope. “There’s nothing they can say about Trump that voters don’t already know,” the strategist said.
At first blush, the assertion makes sense. Trump was fairly well known before he launched his political career, but in the nearly nine years since, the Republican has become one of the most scrutinized figures in the world. The former president’s campaign team very likely assumes — with cause — that attitudes about the presumptive GOP nominee are locked in. Everyone knows him; everyone has an opinion on him; and after years of revelations and granular coverage, it’s going to be nearly impossible to persuade voters to change their minds about him.
At least, that’s one way of looking at the political landscape.
The other way is to appreciate the degree to which the Trump strategist has this entire political dynamic backwards.
Just this week, The New Republic’s Greg Sargent had an important report along these lines.
Some new polling from a top Democratic pollster finds mixed news for Team Biden on this front: Large swaths of voters appear to have little awareness of some of Trump’s clearest statements of hostility to democracy and intent to impose authoritarian rule in a second term, from his vow to be “dictator for one day” to his vague threat to enact “termination” of provisions in the Constitution.
For those who follow American politics closely — a group that MaddowBlog readers probably fall into — Trump’s public rhetoric about creating a “day one” dictatorship and wanting to “terminate” parts of the U.S. Constitution are important parts of the Republican’s recent record.
But much of the country has no idea that the former president made these comments — at least not yet.
Similarly, recent YouGov polling found most Americans also don’t know about Trump’s E. Jean Carroll case, Trump’s fraud ruling in New York, or Trump’s anti-NATO comments.
To be sure, the data opens the door to a spirited conversation about the perils of an uninformed electorate, and that discussion has merit. But in the short term, take another look at that quote from the Trump campaign strategist: “There’s nothing they can say about Trump that voters don’t already know.”
To which reality is responding, “Want to bet?”
Greg’s TNR report added:
The new polling also counters a well-worn refrain from skittish, nonconfrontational Democrats. They sometimes say Trump’s negatives are so well known — or “baked in,” as campaign jargon puts it—that there’s no sense in spending much time on his authoritarian outbursts, affection for political violence, and wide array of (alleged) crimes. Yet all this may in an important sense constitute new information for untold numbers of voters.
Greg spoke to veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who said, “Trump’s negatives are not baked into the cake at all.”
The opportunity for the former president’s critics seems obvious.