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Little bothers White House officials more than the political conversation surrounding the economy. On Christmas Eve, for example, a reporter asked President Joe Biden for his “outlook on the economy” in 2024. “All good. Take a look. Start reporting it the right way,” the Democrat responded.
The frustration is understandable. Against a backdrop of historically low unemployment, economic growth, shrinking inflation, rising wages, falling gas prices and a rising stock market, recent surveys have found an American electorate with dour opinions about the state of the economy.
In a year-end column, The Washington Post’s Heather Long wrote:
There’s only one appropriate word to describe the U.S. economy in 2023: ‘miracle.’ Many experts said a recession was inevitable. They said there was no way inflation would ease without massive job losses. They were wrong. ... This doesn’t mean everything was perfect, but it’s important to celebrate the economic equivalent of an underdog athlete winning gold.
Long added that when it comes to economic performance, Biden “deserves more credit than he’s getting.”
As a political matter, however, the question on the minds of many Democrats is when public attitudes will start to better reflect economic improvements. With this in mind, the latest USA Today/Suffolk University Poll was likely well received at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
There is more potentially good news for Biden: Views of the economy are brightening. Now 29% say the economy is in recovery, a jump of 8 percentage points since the survey in late October. In the wake of positive reports on employment, inflation and the stock market, that’s the highest level since August 2021. To the frustration of the White House, though, the sunnier perception hasn’t translated to higher support for the president — at least not yet.
To be sure, given the recent data, 29% saying the economy is in recovery is hardly an amazing figure. But the fact that this number is starting to grow suggests improved economic optimism.
What’s more, it’s not the only relevant piece of evidence. As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer-confidence index found an unexpectedly large bump in Americans’ attitudes about the economic future, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report pointed in the same direction.
The latest national poll from Quinnipiac University also found that a plurality of U.S. voters (48%) believe the economy will continue to improve in 2024, while more than 6 in 10 Americans (62%) said they expect 2024 to be better than 2023 for them personally.
To be sure, it’s best not to overreact to data like this, which can be a bit erratic. But as an election year prepares to get underway, the state of the economy will very likely be the dominant issue for much of the public. The fact that there are hints of optimism is no doubt welcome news at the Biden-Harris re-election headquarters.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.