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In the immediate aftermath of Russia invading Ukraine, there was no meaningful partisan divide in the United States. Nearly eight months later, political conditions have changed considerably.
In February, for example, a Pew Research Center poll found only 9% of Republican voters believed the United States was providing too much support to Ukraine. By September, that figure had more than tripled to 32% — which, according to Pew’s research, represented a new plurality in GOP politics.
On Capitol Hill, the trend is similar. Right-wing Republicans like Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene have been overt in their criticisms of U.S. aid to Ukraine, but the congresswoman isn’t alone. Politico reported about a month ago that a growing number of GOP lawmakers are prepared to curtail financial/military support for Ukraine, and Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida suggested that a GOP majority in the House would halt aid to Ukraine altogether.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy predicted that a Republican majority would likely “hold up any additional aid,” a forecast that appeared quite prescient in light of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s newest comments to Punchbowl News.
McCarthy previewed that any request for more Ukraine aid would be more difficult in a House GOP majority. This is something we’ve sensed from our conversations with rank-and-file Republicans during the last few months. The United States has already spent more than $60 billion on economic and military aid since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, funding that has gotten big bipartisan majorities in both chambers. That consensus may be fraying.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” the would-be House speaker said. “They just won’t do it. ... It’s not a free blank check.”
McCarthy added, “Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do, and it can’t be a blank check.”
The fact that the GOP leader used the phrase “blank check” at least three times suggests he considers it important, though it’s not altogether clear how he might define the phrase.
That said, the message and its context is tough to miss: Under a Democratic majority, Ukrainian leaders could count on American backing. If Republicans make gains, that support will quickly become suspect.
Looking ahead, the Punchbowl News report added: “These kinds of comments could prompt the Biden administration to push for a full year of Ukraine aid during [Congress’ post-election lame duck session], should Republicans win control of either chamber on Election Day.”
As for attitudes abroad, as we discussed two weeks ago, the Kremlin hasn’t made any public endorsements in congressional races, but given the circumstances, it’s a safe bet which party Vladimir Putin will be rooting for on Nov. 8.