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As the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack draws closer, support for Donald Trump’s “big lie” appears to be moving in the wrong direction. The Washington Post reported on the latest national poll conducted with the University of Maryland:
Despite audits in multiple states and nationally televised congressional hearings in which state officials and aides to Trump confirmed there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election, more Americans question Biden’s victory than they did two years ago. When The Post and UMD asked in December 2021 whether Biden was legitimately elected, 69 percent of Americans said he was. Now, that’s down to 62 percent.
Of particular interest was the shift among self-identified Republicans: As 2021 came to a close, 39% of GOP voters said President Joe Biden’s election was legitimate. As 2023 wrapped up, that total was down to 31%, while 67% of Republicans said the Democratic incumbent was not legitimately elected, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.
This comes on the heels of a CNN poll from August, which found very similar results.
Circling back to our earlier coverage, in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, it was obvious that Trump’s lies were having the intended effect: Most Republican voters actually believed the nonsense.
As regular readers know, I initially hoped that reality would set in gradually over time. It seemed plausible to think that some of the early polling — during the presidential transition period, for example — was driven by more of an emotional reaction than a meaningful assessment of the facts. Many GOP voters were led to believe that Trump would win, so perhaps their initial rejection of Biden’s victory was a combination of reflexive surprise and anger.
What’s more, as the 2020 race faded from view, Republicans failed to produce any evidence to substantiate the lies, and policymakers’ attention shifted to governing, common sense suggested that even GOP die-hards would move on.
They have not. In fact, my naïve hopes about a gradual acceptance of reality have been dashed in dramatic fashion. Election Day 2020 was 1,155 days ago, and the percentage of Republican voters who are still getting this wrong isn’t just too high, it’s also getting worse.
Does this matter? Are there are any meaningful consequences to so many Republicans embracing such brazen lies? I continue to believe the answer to both questions is yes.
In fact, we’ve already seen some of the real-world results. Ahead of the 2022 elections, polls showed similar percentages of GOP voters believing the “big lie,” which in turn led the party to nominate far-right and unelectable election deniers in many key races nationwide. Democrats had an unexpectedly strong 2022 cycle in part because a radicalized Republican base backed candidates who shared — or at least pretended to share — their ridiculous beliefs.
All of this also matters to the extent that GOP policymakers in state capitols have weaponized election denialism to justify new voter suppression policies.
But there’s also a forward-looking relevance.
There are a variety of factors that have elevated Trump to front-runner status in the race for his party’s 2024 presidential nomination, but polling data like this helps explain his electoral strength.
As far as two-thirds of Republican voters are concerned, Trump not only won in 2016, he also won in 2020, no matter what reality says about the results. For much of the GOP electorate, the calculus is no doubt straightforward: As the party looks for the best possible contender for the 2024 race, why not go with the candidate who’s twice already proven he can win?
In other words, as Republican voters continue to embrace this obvious nonsense, the more important their rejection of reality becomes.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.