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The United States’ European allies were already feeling intense anxiety about the 2024 presidential election, fearing the prospect of having to work with Donald Trump again. On Monday, those fears reached new heights after the former president announced his new running mate.
A senior EU official, for example, told Politico that the selection of Sen. JD Vance is “a disaster for Ukraine.” Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger added, in reference to the GOP senator joining his party's ticket, “They are celebrating that choice both in Milwaukee tonight and in Moscow.”
To appreciate why, consider this recent column from The Washington Post’s Max Boot, which was published before Trump selected the Ohioan.
During his short time in the Senate, Vance has been a leader in opposing U.S. aid to Ukraine. “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” he told Stephen K. Bannon in 2022. In a May speech to the Quincy Institute, an isolationist think tank, Vance said, “I do not think that it is in America’s interest to continue to fund an effectively never-ending war in Ukraine.”
Vance isn’t the only opponent of U.S. support for Ukraine in his party — the Republican National Convention featured other such critics on the stage Monday night — but he’s arguably the most forceful voice in the GOP’s Senate delegation for abandoning our Ukrainian allies, as evidenced by his opposition to Congress’ bipartisan security aid package that passed in February.
An NBC News report added that the senator “has carved out a niche” on the issue, arguing that Ukrainian officials could help end the war by simply giving Russia parts of their country. Vance has also “dismissed concerns that Vladimir Putin would continue his territorial march through Europe if he takes Ukraine.”
As recently as April, Vance wrote a New York Times op-ed that argued that a Russian victory is inevitable — a line popular with the Kremlin — so the United States should adjust its policy accordingly.
Around the same time, the Senate Republican sat down with CNN’s Jake Tapper and argued that the United States should encourage Ukraine to “take a defensive posture,” instead of launching counteroffensives against their Russian invaders.
It fell to the host to remind his guest, “The counteroffensive is within Ukraine, though. They’re not seeking land from Russia.”
There’s already evidence to suggest Vladimir Putin’s government has launched a “whole of government” effort to help boost Trump’s candidacy in the 2024 elections. With Vance joining the Republican ticket, it’s likely Moscow will be even more enthusiastic about helping influence the outcome of the race.
But there’s also a bigger picture to consider. In recent years, the Republican Party has struggled to settle on a new foreign policy vision, with one intraparty contingent sticking to a traditional GOP vision in which the United States remains a dominant voice in world affairs and takes an unyielding stance in support of democracy, while a Trumpified faction seeks a retreat while expressing sympathies for authoritarian regimes.
With Trump and Vance at the top of the GOP ticket, the latter group appears ready to leave the former group behind.