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Nearly two weeks ago, Donald Trump sparked a controversy with published comments about detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Evidently, the former president liked the reaction so much that he released a new video this week in which he doubled-down on the rhetoric. In the 36-second clip, the Republican, echoing his earlier position, said in a straight-to-camera message:
“Evan Gershkovich, the reporter for The Wall Street Journal who is being held by Russia, will be released almost immediately after the election, but definitely before I assume office. He will be home. He will be safe. Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, will do that for me — and I don’t believe he’ll do it for anyone else. And we will be paying nothing. ... We will be paying nothing.”
MSNBC’s Chris Hayes had a very compelling segment on this last night, describing the Republican’s rhetoric as “truly appalling,” and it’s worth appreciating why.
To briefly recap for those who might benefit from a refresher, in March 2023, Russian security forces detained Gershkovich and falsely accused the journalist of espionage. It was the first such arrest of an American journalist in Russia since the latter days of the Cold War.
The developments sparked bipartisan outrage, though Trump, for reasons he did not explain, said literally nothing — for over a year. Given the former president’s apparent eagerness to curry favor with Putin, the presumptive GOP nominee’s silence did not go unnoticed.
In April, more than a year after Gershkovich was first detained, Trump sat down with Time magazine, which asked him why he hadn’t called for the reporter’s release. “I guess because I have so many things I’m working on,” Trump replied.
In the same interview, however, the former president declared, in reference to Gershkovich, “I’ll get him released. He’ll be released. Putin is going to release him.”
On May 23, at 1:30 a.m., Trump issued his first written statement on the matter, which he then turned into a video statement two days ago.
At no point has he gone to the trouble of saying that Gershkovich has been wrongly detained based on charges that have no merit.
Nevertheless, I continue to think there are three possible interpretations of this rhetoric.
1. Trump was guessing at what Putin is thinking. Perhaps the Republican was merely speculating about future events, effectively guessing in a chest-thumping sort of way. If this interpretation is correct, Trump doesn’t know that Gershkovich will be released sometime between early November and mid-January, but the former president expects that based on his assumptions about Putin and the Russian leader’s eagerness to make him happy.
2. Trump has secret insights into what Putin is thinking. In both the Time magazine interview and his online message, Trump appeared to speak with great confidence about what, exactly, Putin would do in the coming months. Note the declarative sentences about future events: “Putin is going to release him,” and the Russian autocrat “will do that for me.” It raises the unsettling possibility that the presumptive Republican nominee has direct insights into Putin’s plans, and Trump is simply passing along his benefactor’s intentions.
3. Trump was sending a message to Putin. Maybe Trump wasn’t guessing, and perhaps he has no insights into Moscow’s plans, but it’s possible that the Republican was instead trying to let Putin know about his own preferences.
As New York magazine’s Jon Chait recently argued, “Perhaps he’s right that Putin ‘will do that for me, but not for anyone else.’ But that is because Putin rightly considers Trump an ally in whose success he is invested. What’s worse is that, by openly signaling to Putin that he does not want Gershkovich to be freed before the election, he is destroying whatever chances may exist to secure his release before then. If Gershkovich goes free prior to the election, Trump would look foolish, and Trump understands perfectly well Putin does not want that to happen.”
Hanging overhead is a question the former president still hasn't answered: If Trump has unique influence with Putin, and the Russian leader is prepared to release Gershkovich as a favor to the Republican, why doesn’t Trump use that power now and help bring the reporter home immediately?
The presumptive GOP nominee could claim credit, spend the next several months bragging about the feat, and bask in the pre-election praise. So why not pick up the phone and use his leverage now?
This post updates our related earlier coverage.