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Five years ago, the University of Virginia’s Miller Center and the Center for Presidential Transition published a memorable report on “the fifth-year curse,” which took note of a curious historical phenomenon. “While the president’s fifth year should be a symbolic and substantive fresh start, it is often marred by political infighting, major crises, and failed legislative agendas,” the report explained.
Way back in 2013, Politico had a related report on the trend.
[T]here’s just something about Year Five itself — some immutable law of the American political calendar that condemns our presidents to a miserable time after their second inaugural. Maybe it’s about presidents and their re-election hangovers, or their opponents’ renewed determination to thwart the White House agenda, or perhaps it’s simply the problem of the public’s inevitable fatigue.
While there’s no reason to take seriously the idea of an actual “curse,” there’s no denying the fact that a great many presidents have struggled in their fifth year in the White House. In 1937, for example, in Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s fifth year, the legendary Democratic president backed off New Deal spending, which reversed economic progress, and tried to pack the U.S. Supreme Court.
But that’s just the start. The Watergate scandal broke during Richard Nixon’s fifth year. The Iran-Contra scandal broke during Ronald Reagan’s fifth year. Bill Clinton’s relationship with Monica Lewinsky began during his fifth year. George W. Bush tried to privatize Social Security in his fifth year, helping set the stage for Democrats to take back Congress a year later.
No one should call a game after the first quarter, but Trump is already on pace to have the worst fifth year in American history.
Though it pales in comparison to dramatic scandals such as Watergate and Iran-Contra, one of the most notable setbacks of Barack Obama’s presidency — the launch of the Affordable Care Act’s website, which initially did not work — also came during his fifth year in office.
There are plenty of competing theories to explain why “the fifth-year curse” endures. Some have attributed this to staffing changes; others have pointed to the hubris that comes with leaders knowing they’ll never again have to face the electorate again.
But while Donald Trump’s fifth year is just getting started — believe it or not, he’s not yet three months into his second term — it’s hard not to notice that he doesn’t appear to be making much of an effort to avoid the so-called “curse.” On the contrary, the incumbent Republican appears to be rushing headstrong into it.
Twelve weeks after his second inaugural, Trump is increasingly unpopular, burdened by scandal, generally seen as an international pariah by the United States’ traditional allies, confronting a series of controversies generated by rampant White House incompetence, suffering a series of setbacks in the courts, pursuing a foolhardy imperialistic agenda, undermining democracy and democratic institutions, and undermining global economic stability for reasons he’s struggled to explain.
No one should call a game after the first quarter, but Trump is already on pace to have the worst fifth year in American history — a history that is filled with some catastrophically bad fifth years.
Perhaps he’s unconcerned about accountability because a truly pitiful Republican majority exists in both chambers, and it remains wholly indifferent to Congress’ oversight responsibilities.
Maybe this has something to do with the fact that Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices ruled that presidents can break laws with impunity.
It’s also very easy to believe that while Trump had some officials in his first term who told him inconvenient truths, in his second term, he’s taken steps to ensure that he’s surrounded exclusively with sycophants who tell him his every whim is worthy of praise and celebration.
Whatever the explanation, those who study the “fifth-year curse” should prepare for a dramatic new chapter to their work.