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It wasn’t easy, and it clearly wasn’t a landslide, but Brazilian voters made a dramatic change in leadership yesterday. NBC News reported this morning:
Leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated his bitter rival, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, to secure his return as Brazil’s leader Sunday after a tightly fought race in the world’s fourth-largest democracy. The country’s Superior Electoral Court verified the win. ... Pre-election polls had given da Silva, a former metalworker and union leader known universally as “Lula,” a commanding lead.
Some of those polls, however, appear to have overstated the former president’s support, and with just about all of the votes tallied, da Silva appears to have won by roughly 2 percentage points.
Across multiple fronts, Bolsonaro’s defeat heralds a new day in South America’s largest country. The outgoing leader’s aggressive deforestation policies have been a nightmare for those who are about the climate crisis, and Bolsonaro has also taken many steps to steer Brazil away from democracy.
With this in mind, it was fascinating to see prominent Western leaders scramble to congratulate da Silva on his victory — Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Great Britain’s Rishi Sunak, et al. — almost immediately after the results were announced.
President Joe Biden helped lead the way on this front, issuing a statement that read, “I send my congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on his election to be the next president of Brazil following free, fair, and credible elections. I look forward to working together to continue the cooperation between our two countries in the months and years ahead.”
The emphasis on Brazil’s “free, fair, and credible elections” was unsubtle: The White House and its Western allies are sending a coordinated diplomatic message to Bolsonaro: “You lost,” they’re effectively saying, “and we’re recognizing the legitimacy of Lula’s win.”
Had the U.S. election in 2020 gone the other way, it’s likely the official White House line would look far different.
Bolsonaro had few allies more enthusiastic in their support than Donald Trump — during and after the Republican’s presidency. In fact, The New York Times reported last fall, “Fresh from their assault on the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, former President Donald J. Trump and his allies are exporting their strategy to Latin America’s largest democracy, working to support Mr. Bolsonaro’s bid for re-election next year.”
Trump went to excessive lengths to support his Brazilian ally — the former president’s efforts in early October were so aggressive, it became a little creepy — and they continued ahead of yesterday’s balloting. On Friday and Sunday morning, the Republican again pleaded with Brazilians to support his ally.
Fortunately for democracy advocates, Trump is no longer in office, leaving Bolsonaro without a key ally in a hemispheric position of power. If the Brazilian leader is looking for ways to stay in power despite his defeat, he now realizes he’ll have to do so without the United States’ backing.
That said, Bolsonaro might very well try to stay in office anyway. He spent months questioning the legitimacy of his country’s electoral system, as part of a strategy designed to dismiss his defeat as “rigged.” He also declared in advance that he will not accept election results that he does not like.
Yes, now that you mention it, all of this does sound familiar.
With this in mind, as of this morning, Bolsonaro has not conceded defeat, despite the results.