Weighing Biden’s 2024 fate, the Dems’ pendulum keeps swinging

At roughly this point 24 hours ago, the Democratic Party’s 2024 pendulum appeared to have swung in President Joe Biden’s favor. Axios published a report with a headline that read, “Biden rebels in Congress see their revolt crumbling.”

The article quoted one unnamed House Democrat who said, “As someone who wanted the reckoning and is really disappointed that it’s over, trust me: It’s over.”

It’s not that congressional Democrats met behind closed doors and came to the conclusion that Biden was the party’s best and strongest choice for the November ballot. Rather, the members felt stuck: They don’t think the president can win re-election, but they also don't think he’ll quit. The result was an awkward dilemma for Democratic lawmakers: Either take the pressure campaign to an aggressive new level and hope Biden reverses course, or grudgingly fall in line and accept the status quo.

At this point yesterday, a variety of Democratic members appeared to embrace the latter option. The president’s position had strengthened, at least in his own party, in ways that seemed difficult to predict a couple of days earlier.

But the funny thing about pendulums is that they keep swinging. NBC News reported this morning:

During an MSNBC appearance, the speaker emerita said, in reference to Biden, “It’s up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short.”

Asked in the same interview if she wants the president to move forward with his re-election plans, Pelosi added, “I want him to do whatever he decides to do, and that’s — that’s the way it is.”

The significance of the comments was obvious: Biden has told Democrats that the discussion about his electoral future is over, while Pelosi left little doubt that the conversation remains ongoing. If the headline yesterday was that the party was prepared to move on, the former House speaker’s on-air comments — delivered on a program the president is known to watch — suggested otherwise.

The California Democrat isn’t alone. Despite the incumbent president’s declarations, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey announced late yesterday that she wants Biden to stand aside for the good of the country. Around the same, Rep. Andy Kim, the Democratic Senate nominee in New Jersey, expressed “concerns” about Biden’s candidacy, adding that he’s open to discussions about a new party nominee.

A few hours later, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado appeared on CNN and said in no uncertain terms that he does not believe Biden can win a second term.

This morning, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who represents a competitive swing district in New York, also publicly called on Biden to forgo his re-election plans. In case that weren’t quite enough, The New York Times published an op-ed from actor George Clooney, who last month co-hosted the largest fundraising event ever for any Democratic candidate, and who now believes the president should stand down.

“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate,” Clooney wrote. “Was he tired? Yes. A cold? Maybe. But our party leaders need to stop telling us that 51 million people didn’t see what we just saw.”

The actor added, “We are not going to win in November with this president. On top of that, we won’t win the House, and we’re going to lose the Senate. This isn’t only my opinion; this is the opinion of every senator and congress member and governor that I’ve spoken with in private. Every single one, irrespective of what he or she is saying publicly.”

I won’t pretend to know what’s likely to happen, but it’s clear that the debate that Biden tried to shut down isn’t over, and uncertainty about the near future reigns.