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Exit poll data is giving us a picture of the groups that hoisted Donald Trump into the White House yet again, and one thing seems abundantly clear: The narrative — driven by the Trump campaign and polling that put his support among Black men as high as 26% — that there would be some spike in Black voter support for Trump (or a “drift,” as The Atlantic called it) didn’t materialize as predicted.
Not with Black men. Not with Black people, period.
Let’s start with the numbers: In 2020, Trump won 12% of Black voters; this year, he won 13%. Among Black men — the ones who were supposedly swarming to Trump in droves — the increase was essentially the same: Trump won 19% of Black men in 2020, and he won 21% in 2024. Another way to put the data? Black men rejected Trump more resoundingly than almost every other demographic except Black women.
That’s a far cry from the 50% of Black men Steve Bannon promised Republicans would win in 2022. Having heard that vow then and seen it fail to materialize, I knew to take claims of a major Black MAGA shift with a grain of salt. It’s a shame that some in the media seemed eager to let a few rappers and self-styled political pundits serve as indicators that Black people were leaving the Democratic Party.
I tried to warn you this would happen. I don’t mean to be that guy, but as a Black man, I must say the media’s obsession with this flawed story — at the expense of stories more worthy of the nation’s attention, like anti-Black voter suppression — strikes me as insulting and irresponsible.
Ask yourself: What did I hear more about this election cycle? The supposed surge of Black Trump support or stories about voter roll purges disproportionately affecting Black people? What about Nebraska Republicans’ refusal to abide by the state’s felon enfranchisement law until the state Supreme Court required them to? Anything much about voter intimidation tactics, how racist gerrymandering shaped the electoral map, or how newly instituted voter ID laws could create hurdles that deter Black people from casting their votes? From my vantage point, conversation about the illusory Black MAGA uprising was the shiny bauble that distracted attention, to the detriment of Black people and the country.
If media outlets want to scrutinize men newly enlisted into MAGAdom, they might focus instead on Latino men, who did swing heavily in Trump’s favor this year. In 2020, they supported Joe Biden over Trump, 59% to 36%, but they voted for Trump (55%) over Kamala Harris (43%) this time around.
But when it comes to the Harris, the record is clear: Black folks, despite the media’s frequent suggestions, were happy to pull the lever for her.