India and Pakistan’s fragile ceasefire holds — for now

The deal, first announced by Trump on social media, is meant to halt the deadliest outbreak of violence in the Kashmir region in decades.

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This is an adapted excerpt from the May 11 episode of “Velshi.”

Hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan on social media early Saturday, explosions were once again heard in major cities across the region. Dozens have been killed on both sides in fighting that started on Wednesday between the two enemy nuclear powers, triggering an apparent mediation effort from the United States.

But this conflict has a long history. India and Pakistan have fought several wars with each other involving the disputed Kashmir region. This most recent fighting followed an April 22 terrorist attack that killed more than two dozen tourists in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir. Pakistan denied any connection, but India attacked Pakistan in response.

It’s important to note that both India and Pakistan are U.S. allies, and both have nuclear weapons.

Kashmir is a mountainous area roughly the size of Utah, surrounded by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China. It has a long and rich history and has been inhabited by many peoples, including Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs and Dogras. In 1846, a loosely defined border resembling today’s Kashmir region was drawn at the end of the First Anglo-Sikh War. It acted as a sort of buffer zone for the British Empire between the Indian subcontinent, which it controlled as a colony beginning in 1858, and the Russian and Chinese empires.

Flash forward to 1947, when India and Pakistan both gained independence from Britain; some states became part of majority-Hindu India, others part of majority-Muslim Pakistan. The maharaja of Kashmir initially tried to remain independent but eventually opted to be part of India, a decision that apparently didn’t sit well with the majority of Kashmiris.

War soon broke out between India and Pakistan, which rejected that decision and claimed Kashmir as its own. That war ended with a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations and a line established to divide Kashmir. That line was supposed to be temporary; however, it became an official “Line of Control” in 1972 following the third Indo-Pakistani war, and it is still in place today.

Currently, Pakistan administers the northern and western portions, consisting of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. India administers the areas of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. China also controls about 15% of the eastern portions of Kashmir.

It’s important to note that both India and Pakistan are U.S. allies, and both have nuclear weapons. There have been multiple deadly conflicts and incidents since the end of the last Indo-Pakistani war in 1972. However, things had been relatively calm for several years — that was, until the April 22 attack.

An agreement was announced Saturday, but within hours, explosions and strikes were reported in both Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

After that attack, India blamed Pakistan and vowed retaliation. On Wednesday, India struck several sites in both Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and inside Pakistan itself. Pakistan responded with its own strikes, both in Indian-controlled Kashmir and inside India. The situation escalated, as India and Pakistan continued to trade attacks. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar and even Iran were involved in separate, urgent diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire.

An agreement was announced Saturday, but within hours, explosions and strikes were reported in both the Indian and Pakistani regions of Kashmir, with each side blaming the other for violating the deal. As of Monday, it appears the fragile truce is holding, containing this decades-old conflict, at least for now.

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