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The latest charts from “Morning Joe” economic analyst Steve Rattner are in, and the new data could signal trouble ahead for Donald Trump’s economy.
On Thursday morning, Rattner, a former Obama-era Treasury official, broke down the latest projections from the Federal Reserve. As his chart showed, the Fed now expects gross domestic product growth of 1.4% in 2025, down from its previous projection of 1.7%. “This happens to match a World Bank number that came out a couple of weeks ago — two very impartial forecasters,” he added.
“So in Year 1 of Trump, we are going to grow, at least on track to grow, exactly half of what we grew in the last year of Biden,” Rattner said, noting the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in 2024.
I think it’s actually really clear Americans don’t want to go back into factories.”
Steve Rattner on “Morning Joe”
The Fed also said it expected slightly higher unemployment in the year to come: “It’s now at 4.2, they think it’s gonna go to 4.5% by the end of the year,” Rattner said. Inflation appears to be following a similar trend, going up to 3.0% this year from the Fed’s last projection of 2.7%.
Overall, Rattner said he believed the numbers painted a troubling picture for the U.S. economy: “I don’t want to necessarily pronounce stagflation, but when you’re moving towards slower growth, more unemployment and somewhat higher interest rates, that is not the direction you want to be moving in.”
“Yeah, warning lights starting to flash. No doubt about it,” said “Morning Joe” co-host Jonathan Lemire.
Rattner also walked through some worrying news for recent college graduates. Citing data from the Fed, one chart displayed a 5.8% unemployment rate for the group, which he said was “substantially higher than the U.S. average.”
“Why is that? We don’t, of course, exactly know,” Rattner continued. “There’s talk that companies are starting to cut back on their hiring because of the economic uncertainty, the tariffs, whatever.”
Rattner said it’s important to put those numbers into context against the “changing set of views around the U.S. job market.”
“We talk a lot about manufacturing jobs; there are actually 400,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in this country at the moment,” he explained. “And you have people saying jobs aren’t plentiful. I think it’s actually really clear Americans don’t want to go back into factories.”
Lemire agreed with Rattner’s analysis, adding, “That’s one of the points that critics have made when they suggest that President Trump’s tariff plan to build back manufacturing may be flawed.”
You can watch Rattner walk through the latest numbers in the clip at the top.