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With the start of hurricane season a little more than a week away, federal forecasters say the United States will likely experience an “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected 13 to 19 named storms for the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Out of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, or storms with winds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA is predicting three to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Forecasters pointed to several factors that could lead to an above-normal season, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.
The agency said there’s a 60% chance that the 2025 season will exceed the annual average of 14 named Atlantic storms.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose department oversees NOAA. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
Forecasters pointed to several factors that could lead to an above-normal season, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from a monsoon system off the western coast of Africa that serves as a primary starting point for tropical activity.
Last year, the U.S. experienced its deadliest hurricane season since 2005, with more than 400 fatalities, according to the National Hurricane Center’s director, Michael Brennan.
The new forecast comes as National Weather Service offices across the country are grappling with Donald Trump’s sweeping federal cuts. Since January, nearly 600 of the agency’s 4,000 employees reportedly have been laid off or have opted to leave.
As NBC News reported: “The nation’s 122 local forecasting offices have been hard hit and are riddled with vacancies. Many of those offices will be tasked with forecasting local effects after a hurricane landfall, such as flood inundation and rainfall.”
But the Trump administration has dismissed concerns that staffing cuts will have a negative impact. “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go. And we are really making this up a top priority for this administration,” Laura Grimm, the acting administrator of NOAA, told NBC News.