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Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is on her way to defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli to become the next governor of New Jersey.
The four-term U.S. representative will beat out the former state assemblyman, NBC News' Decision Desk projects, in a closely watched race that could have national implications for next year’s midterm elections.
President Donald Trump had heavily backed Ciattarelli, who lost the governor’s race for the second straight time, having failed to unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.
Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, was first elected to Congress in 2018 as part of the “blue wave.” Her win in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, a mix of New York City commuter towns and more rural communities, was one of 42 Republican-held seats Democrats flipped in that year’s midterms.
Democrats nationwide will hope to capitalize on Sherrill’s victory to mobilize their party’s base as they seek to retake the House and the Senate in 2026.
Sherrill will become the state’s second female governor, after Christine Todd Whitman.
While polls showed voters were focused on the economy, both Sherrill and Ciattarelli spent much of the campaign lobbing personal attacks at each other. Debates between the two candidates were often contentious.
Sherrill accused Ciattarelli, who founded a medical publishing company, of profiting from the opioid crisis and said he was responsible for the deaths of “tens of thousands of people.” Ciattarelli attacked Sherrill over her Naval Academy record, accusing the former helicopter pilot of participating in a cheating scandal.
In September, the National Archives admitted that it had released Sherrill’s unredacted records to an ally of Ciattarelli in error. Those documents included the Democrat’s Social Security number and other personal information.
The election comes one year after Trump made surprising inroads in the state. While Trump lost New Jersey to Kamala Harris, the president flipped five counties that had voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Trump lost to Harris by just a 6-point margin, closing a gap on the 16-point loss he suffered in 2020.
Both parties will likely look to Tuesday’s results to guide their approach to next year’s midterms. New Jersey, as one of only two off-year gubernatorial races to take place across the country, is often seen as a bellwether race, with Democrats and Republicans using the results to take a temperature check on voters.
The outcome will be of particular interest to Republicans, since the sitting president’s party typically loses seats in midterms.
New Jersey elected a governor from the opposite party of the president in every election from 1989 to 2017. However, Murphy broke that streak in 2021, when the Democratic incumbent clinched reelection while Biden still occupied the White House.