Rebel forces just toppled the Syrian government. What comes next?

This is an adapted excerpt from the Dec. 8 episode of "Ayman."

On Saturday, Syria’s rebel forces stormed the capital, Damascus, and declared President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year dictatorship was over. On Sunday, it was reported that he fled to Moscow. These events didn’t just mark the end of Assad’s regime — it was the collapse of more than 50 years of Assad family rule. 

The speed of the takeover was astonishing. In just a matter of days, rebel forces — led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani — took over cities from the north right to the capital, facing very little pushback. That’s partially due to Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies, using up many resources on their own wars.

The signs of change have been dramatic: statues of Assad and his father, Hafez Assad — who ruled before him — toppled to the ground; joy erupting in the streets; thousands imprisoned for daring to speak against Assad’s rule are finally free, reunited with their families. 

Social media was filled with heartbreaking stories, like one prisoner who could barely remember who he was when the rebels released him. At the borders, Syrian refugees, many who fled years ago, are lining up, desperate to return to the homes they were forced out of.

There’s a lot to unpack here but to truly grasp what this moment means for Syrians, you have to go back 13 years to the Arab Spring. That’s when massive protests broke out in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen — and of course, Syria. The millions that took part in this revolution believed in the same ideals: freedom and dignity. Syrians also wanted the many political prisoners throughout the country released. 

In 2011, many Syrians felt very similar to how they may feel at this moment. They were hopeful and, at first, on the brink of toppling a decades-long regime. The revolutionary forces leading the charge against the regime were made up of different factions: activists, former soldiers who turned against Assad and minorities oppressed under him, such as Kurds and Assyrians, and more.

But there’s a big difference between then and now. Back then, Assad didn’t flee and Iran backed him. He stayed and crushed the Syrian people’s hopes and aspirations. He made life unbearable, especially for his dissenters, bringing Syria into a full civil war. His forces shot and killed thousands of anti-regime protesters in just the first few months. He sent war tanks into the same cities we saw rebel forces take over, tanks that targeted anyone in their path, whether it was protesters, bystanders, women or children.                             

In May 2011, Assad also made a calculated move to undermine the revolution. He began releasing jihadists and Islamic extremists from prison while arresting thousands of peaceful protesters, journalists and activists. A former Syrian diplomat who later joined the opposition told The Wall Street Journal that Assad released them because he feared a continued peaceful revolution. He wanted them to interrupt that progress. 

Nearly a year after the revolution began, I traveled to Daraa, the heart of the uprising, for NBC News and saw firsthand how life changed under Assad’s brutal crackdown. Things got even worse when the unthinkable happened. Despite former President Barack Obama issuing a red-line warning to Assad, threatening U.S. involvement if his regime were to use chemical weapons, the Syrian president crossed it. By 2013, he was using chemical weapons on his own people. More than a thousand people were killed, and survivors suffered from foaming at the mouth, seizures, and lifelong burns and injuries.

In the years that followed, the so-called Islamic State formed in Syria and U.S. airstrikes targeted their territory. Assad asked Russia for help, leading to bombings, airstrikes and apparent brutal war crimes in opposition-held areas. Meanwhile, Turkey, right on Syria’s border, supported some rebel groups but also attacked Kurdish forces to drive them away.

These are just a few reasons why the war has stalled. Another big one is that the international community simply turned a blind eye. They normalized the frozen conflict and Assad holding on to power. 13 years later, we’re now looking at around 600,000 killed in Syria, millions of refugees and a country that lost complete hope — until last night. 

As this unfolds, pundits and experts keep saying it’s just more of the same. Many draw comparisons to Syria and other post-Arab Spring countries but, in a lot of ways, that’s a lazy analysis. There are a few key things that set this moment apart and they’re worth noticing. 

Just consider what Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali who stayed behind as Assad fled, said on Saturday. “I am not leaving and I don’t intend to leave," al-Jalai said in a video statement. "I expect in a peaceful manner to guarantee the continuity of the public authorities and the institutions and the state apparatus and to guarantee the safety and security for all citizens."

He’s talking about preserving state institutions and a safe transition for citizens, which is something we haven’t seen before. The rebel leader of HTS, Jolani, said this on CNN a few days ago, before accepting his help in this transition, “The revolution has transitioned from chaos and randomness to a state of order in civil and institutional matters and military operations alike.”

This next chapter is complicated and there are many layers to consider. Jolani, the HTS rebel leader, had ties to both Al Qaeda and ISIS. Syrians already know this. The focus on these complexities shouldn’t overshadow the moment.  

To move forward, Syria had to end the Assad family’s half-century rule. Now, Syrians have a real chance for a peaceful future. With dignity and determination, this is their historic opportunity.

 Allison Detzel contributed.