Iowa caucus results 2024: Trump wins first race, Ramaswamy ends campaign

For a brief moment, Trump’s victory speech in Iowa was — at least by his standards — gracious. He congratulated his opponents, thanked his staff and highlighted local supporters. He even spared a moment for his mother-in-law Amalija Knavs, who passed away last week.

And then, poof: The restraint was gone. Back came the talking points about cities riddled with crime, immigrants threatening the country and elections stolen by Democrats. Trump even claimed he’d won Iowa three times, an easily disproven fact. Sen. Ted Cruz won the state in 2016. 

Early in Trump’s political career, he would occasionally deliver a normal, even coherent, speech. But as soon as pundits declared him a changed man, Trump would quickly prove them wrong with a new outburst. Now, he can’t even feign that sort of restraint or discipline for more than a few minutes. It’s a poor development for a candidate entering a general election. Unfortunately for him, though, the spotlight will only brighten.

As of 11:07 p.m. ET, NBC News’ Decision Desk estimated turnout to be about 115,000 caucusgoers. That’s below pre-caucus expectations; not so long ago, the campaigns expected over 200,000 Iowans to show up. And it would be a decline of nearly 40% from the 187,000 who voted in the last competitive Iowa Republican caucus, in 2016.

Part of the fault lies with the weather — it was among the coldest Iowa caucus days ever. But the lion’s share of the blame belongs to the candidates themselves — or at least (for once) everyone but Trump. With no one able to challenge the former president, turnout suffered. As MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki pointed out on-air, the lowest turnout for an Iowa GOP caucus came in 2000, when George W. Bush had a large lead nationally and his closest rival, John McCain, barely even contested the state. It’s no surprise, then, with an even less competitive race, that few Iowans felt moved to show up.

Iowa Democrats released a statement criticizing Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds for her endorsement of DeSantis — who came in a distant second in Iowa tonight — saying it “highlight[s] just how out-of-touch” she is.

“Governor Reynolds is no doubt the biggest loser of the Iowa Caucuses,” Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Paige Godden said in the statement. “It’s clear she has completely lost her sway over the Republican Party and is out of touch with Iowans.”

Reynolds’ decision was also criticized by some fellow Republicans, as well as by Trump, who railed against her disloyalty.

After finishing a disappointing fourth in Iowa, Ramaswamy announced that he was dropping out. The 38-year-old entrepreneur said that Trump would have his “full endorsement.”

I mentioned earlier that the GOP candidates in total spent an estimated $124 million just on video ads in Iowa ahead of the caucuses. Advertising is most campaigns’ largest expense, but it doesn’t include all the other things that campaigns need to run. Now NBC News’ Decision Desk is estimating about 115,000 people turned out to caucus on Monday night. Quick back-of-the-envelope math says that means each vote cost roughly $1000. That’s an absurd number, even before you consider that an AdSense report on the 2022 midterms found that the most expensive Senate race that year saw an estimated $175 spent per vote.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ hard push for the religious vote, including notable efforts to woo evangelicals, appears to have paid off for him as NBC News projects he has secured second place in the Iowa caucuses. DeSantis visited all 99 Iowa counties ahead of the caucuses, and scored some key endorsements including Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and popular evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

Donald Trump was declared the winner very quickly on Monday, in a landslide victory. This led to a high-pressure race for the number two spot. And it certainly seemed like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was poised to overtake him, with polls this week suggesting a perfectly timed surge in the lead-up to Iowa. It was not to be.

Of course, there’s still little to no chance that DeSantis will be able to defeat his true opponent, former President Donald Trump, as the primary continues.

Jen Psaki speaking on MSNBC moments ago:

One of the most interesting things to watch tonight is going to be how these candidates handle it when they go out and speak. Because historically candidates will go out and they’ll claim victory even when they got second or third. ...

If you’re Ron DeSantis, I actually think a second place is great for him, dare I say. Because the expectation a little bit was that Haley was going to beat him in Iowa. ...

Trump yesterday said about Haley, “You’re going to find out a lot about her in the next short period of time.” Which is very mobby but it also means he’s threatened by her. And Don Jr. went to a caucus site where she was tonight to attack her specifically. The reporting said they didn’t interact, but clearly she’s the one that makes them nervous. So, if DeSantis beats her, she still has her pathway in New Hampshire. But if you’re DeSantis, you’re going to claim victory.

These comments have been slightly edited for length and clarity.

Trump’s blitzkrieg win in Iowa is really highlighting a dynamic that most people who’ve covered presidential primary campaigns aren’t used to — inevitability. Well, that’s not entirely true: There have been plenty of races where the frontrunner was seen as unstoppable before they weren’t (see: the 2008 Democratic primary and Hillary Clinton).

But that’s not the case with Trump, a former incumbent who, rather than having the loser stink all over him to alienate the party elites, still has the majority of the GOP behind him. The romp in Iowa belies the eagerness of the media to see someone actually challenge him in one of the other contests ahead of Super Tuesday. In the absence of the usual horserace drama, it’s vital then to look ahead and focus on what’s actually at stake in the general election, giving voters a clear-eyed look at what a second Trump term would mean for the country.