Takeaways and analysis: Harris gives concession speech, Dems hope for House control

Symone Sanders-Townsend speaking on MSNBC moments ago:

There were a lot of organizers across the country, in places like Florida and Georgia and whatnot, who were telling people to focus on local elections this cycle because in their view, when it came to the presidency, Trump and Harris were much of the same.

But I think one of the things that should come out of this result, as my friend DeRay Mckesson said, is that who the president is does matter. You cannot local election your way to a representative democracy and think you’re going to be OK. 

For the young people out there who are looking at this saying, “Oh my goodness, politics does not work.” Well, the system only works if you work it. We do live in a participatory democracy, which means people must participate. 

Your participation can change things. Sometimes you leave it all in the field and you are not successful — that’s a hard reality. But folks must continue to keep fighting. Make no mistake, it will be rough for a while. It may not look like it will come as swiftly as you want it to, but it will come. But this will be a rough time, and we should be honest about that.

These comments have been slightly edited for length and clarity.

As Trump’s campaign reiterates its frightening vow to carry out the most massive deportation operation in U.S. history, we ought to discuss how Americans actually feel about the policy and all it might entail. 

Michael Podhorzer’s recent piece for MSNBC makes the case that multiple polls released this year have misrepresented support for mass deportation by failing to clarify what it could mean or how it would look in practice, and he cites data showing Americans’ broad support for allowing immigrants to remain in the country — even if they’re undocumented — once the people polled were informed about these various immigration statuses.

That tracks with a recent poll released by the University of Maryland, showing that voters in swing states favor a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants over mass deportation when the respondents were given a detailed breakdown of what each would mean, including an estimate of how much a mass deportation force could cost.  

Candidates can only give you a rough guide of the voters’ thinking on policy. Ballot measures are a much better indicator. There were a lot on Tuesday’s ballots and here are a few things we learned:

• Voters are still concerned about access to abortion, to a point. Abortion-rights ballot measures passed in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Montana, Missouri, Nevada and New York. A Florida measure received 57% of the vote, which was not enough to clear a supermajority bar. Voters in South Dakota rejected a measure, and a ban on abortions after the first trimester passed in Nebraska.

• Legalizing marijuana was. Ballot measures failed in North Dakota and South Dakota. A measure in Florida also failed, but it came really close to passing the 60% supermajority threshold.

• They aren’t jazzed about ranked-choice voting. A popular reform among a certain segment of good-government types, ranked-choice voting failed in Nevada and Oregon and looks headed to defeat in Colorado, while a measure to repeal it in Alaska is currently ahead. Similarly, a bid to replace partisan primaries with an open system in Arizona failed and a top-two primary failed in South Dakota. Ranked-choice voting passed in D.C., but supporters are going to have to work harder to make their case.

• Voters really like banning noncitizen voting. Despite already being banned in state and federal elections in all 50 states, measures to restrict voting to only citizens passed in Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Wisconsin.

According to a Washington Post analysis of data from The Associated Press and the University of Florida Election Lab, 2024 turnout levels are expected to be near the record set in 2020. The Post notes that most battleground states are on track to break turnout records and that at least 10 states are expected to surpass highs set in 1980.

Here’s the overall picture: In 2020, 66% of the voting-eligible population voted. As of now, the Post estimates that participation is tracking toward 65% this time around.

There’s a weird belief in Washington that a competitive primary is bad. Reporters describe a candidate coming out of a “bruising primary,” while strategists look for ways to lock up a nomination early.

But this election was another example of why that’s a bad strategy.

In a scathing statement today in response to Harris’ loss, Sen. Bernie Sanders criticized the Democratic Party and its leadership, suggesting they are out of step with the electorate.

The independent Vermont senator, who himself cruised to re-election Tuesday night, endorsed Harris when she ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket in July. He urged her campaign to pay more attention to working-class voters than to moderate Republicans, and he hit the campaign trail on Harris’ behalf to win them over.

“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” Sanders wrote. “While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right.”

In the waning days of the 2024 presidential election, some Harris supporters longed for former President George W. Bush to endorse her. 

He didn’t, but not because he likes Trump. (Look no further than his unprintable reaction to Trump’s first inauguration.) Instead, like his father, former President George H.W. Bush, and a long string of presidents stretching back to George Washington, he decided to stay retired from politics.

It’s another one of those American norms that Trump has broken: the idea that a president should return to his farm, like the Roman consul Cincinnatus. (Or in Bush’s case, his oil paintings.)

To be fair, Grover Cleveland also left the White House after a defeat, then returned for a second nonconsecutive term, and Teddy Roosevelt tried to do the same running as a Bull Moose.

But by and large, former presidents have been content to leave it all behind, maybe write a memoir or do some charitable work, sit on some corporate boards and leave the governing to someone else, especially after losing.

It’s too soon to tell if this idea becomes a trend, but you can see examples at a smaller level such as Kari Lake, who ran for governor in 2022, lost, and then ran for Senate this year.

Symone Sanders-Townsend speaking on MSNBC moments ago:

The presidential election of 1968 was the same election where Richard Nixon won and Shirley Chisholm became the first Black woman elected to the House of Representatives. Many things can happen in one election.

Trump is going to be the 47th president of the United States, but Democrats also scored some wins last night. Shomari Figures is now a congressman-elect in an Alabama seat that was created out of a gerrymandering lawsuit that went all the way up to the Supreme Court. That’s a seat Democrats didn’t have before. Now they do. 

Then you have the flip with Rep. Brandon Williams’ seat. He’s a Republican incumbent from New York’s 22nd Congressional District. Now a Democrat will represent that seat. Notably, Williams is who House Speaker Mike Johnson stood alongside as he promised to get rid of the CHIPS Act, which is bringing a lot of jobs to New York state. So it appears that didn’t bode well for him. 

Some of the Democrats I’ve talked to are still optimistic. They believe there’s still an opportunity where there will be a narrow Democratic majority in the House. Many of the races we’re holding out for are in places like Arizona and California. It’s clear we’re going to be waiting a while for results, folks.

These comments have been slightly edited for length and clarity.