Control of House, Senate hang in the balance as key races not yet projected

Coming into Election Day, Donald Trump was feeling confident. He teased a "very big announcement" on Nov. 15 that felt like a possible 2024 campaign kickoff. But Tuesday's results — in particular, the strength of Republican candidates in Florida and the relative weakness of MAGA candidates elsewhere — may take some of the wind out of the former president's sails. At least for now.

As Noah Rothman wrote earlier, "DeSantis is politically savvy enough to know that this is his moment. He has to know that new stars like Arizona’s Kari Lake are coming up behind him fast. He must know that it’s probably now or never. But if DeSantis decides to enter the national political arena in 2023, Florida’s voters have made his opening argument for him."

In his victory speech early Wednesday, John Fetterman began with mock surprise.

“What is it, it’s like 1:30 in the morning and you’re still here hanging in?” he said to supporters.

The Democrat, who defeated celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in their U.S. Senate race, spoke in Pittsburgh for about seven minutes.

“This race is for the future of every community all across Pennsylvania,” he said, “for every small town or person that ever felt left behind.”

Watch more of Fetterman’s remarks below.

Maryland and Missouri have become the 20th and 21st states in the U.S. to legalize recreational marijuana, according to NBC News projections. Voters in three other states — North Dakota, South Dakota and Arkansas — did not approve legalization measures on Tuesday’s ballot, per NBC.

According to an AP-NORC survey, about 6 in 10 voters support national legalization of recreational marijuana.

Fetterman’s debate against Oz in the final stretch of the campaign has sparked a lot of, well, debate. Some pundits called it “painful to listen to,” inviting accusations of ableism and insensitivity. Recovery from a recent stroke has made speech and auditory processing difficult for Fetterman, and that was apparent in the debate. But supporters suggested that Fetterman’s decision to face those struggles publicly would invite empathy and understanding from anyone who had similarly struggled to overcome difficulties. 

There’s also a larger piece of context for Fetterman’s decision to show up: political candidates can be notoriously debate-averse. Until recently, it wasn’t that uncommon for frontrunners in presidential primaries to blow off debates. In 1960, people said Richard Nixon looked sweaty and had a five o’clock shadow, and there weren’t any more presidential debates for 16 years. (As an incumbent president, Nixon declined to debate in 1972 because he said the president’s words were policy and thus it was not appropriate to debate.) Debates are easy to roll your eyes at, with their canned questions and pat answers. But they do have an element of unpredictability, and politicians have often tried to avoid them, even when they’re not recovering from a major neurological event. Food for thought as Fetterman celebrates his win with supporters this morning.

Democrat Josh Green has won in the Hawaii governor’s race, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Duke Aiona.

Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz has won re-election in Hawaii, NBC News projects. He defeats Republican Bob McDermott.

Last month, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich picked the race between Democrat Wiley Nickel and Republican Bo Hines in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District as a likely bellwether in the race for control of the House. Nickel looks set to prevail by more than two percentage points. Democrats have already flipped a House seat in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and may flip another in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District . Another close race in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District looks likely to go blue. Perhaps most shocking of all, hard-right Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., still trails in her re-election bid with 81% of the vote counted.

Not everything’s gone the Democrats’ way: Things still might go south for Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in New York, and Rep. Tom Malinowski appears likely to lose in New Jersey. But the fact that we’re past midnight and the balance of power in the House is still in doubt is not an outcome that many political prognosticators would have expected.

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has won re-election in Michigan, NBC News projects. She defeats Republican Tudor Dixon.