When the history books are written, 2023 will be remembered as the year of Taylor Swift.
No, my 11-year-old daughter has not taken over my computer — though she did contribute to this op-ed.
Swift’s “Eras Tour,” which began earlier this year, has played for 66 sold-out audiences across the United States and grossed more than $1 billion. On secondary markets, fans are paying thousands of dollars for even the worst seats in the house. Her very presence in a new city creates a mini-economic boom. According to one estimate from QuestionPro Research, Swifties spend approximately $93 million per show on everything from tickets to travel, lodging, food, and merchandise. By the end of the tour that will amount to a $5.7 billion jolt to the US economy. “If Taylor Swift were an economy,” claims Dan Fleetwood, President of QuestionPro Research, “she’d be bigger than 50 countries.” Illinois’s Governor J.B. Pritzker credited Swift with reviving the state’s tourism business, and the tour’s economic impact on that industry was so profound that it was mentioned in a report issued by the Federal Reserve.
In a recent NBC News poll, Swift had the highest favorability rating of any person tested.
That’s all before Swift released her concert film of the tour, which has already grossed $250 million globally, and is still in hundreds of theaters more than two months after its release.
Dollars aside, her cultural impact might be just as significant. There are now ten college courses decided to the study of Swiftology — including one at Harvard. After she started dating Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, there was even a marked increase in television viewership for Chiefs games — all the more remarkable given football’s ratings dominance.
More than half of all Americans count themselves as Swift fans. In a recent NBC News poll, she had the highest favorability rating of any person tested — a 40/16 positive/negative rating that puts her above President Biden, former President Trump, and every other major political figure in the country. In naming her the Person of the Year, Time magazine called Swift “the master storyteller of the modern era.”
In short, it’s Taylor Swift’s world, and we’re all living in it. But one question about Swift’s influence remains unknown: can she impact American politics?
Swift is quite clearly a Democrat. In 2018, she endorsed two Democratic candidates in her adopted home state of Tennessee — Rep. Jim Cooper and former Gov. Phil Bredesen in his Senate race against Republican Marsha Blackburn.
In an Instagram post, she said Blackburn’s “voting record in Congress appalls and terrifies me” and criticized her “for voting against equal pay for women” and “the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act,” supporting businesses that “refuse service to gay couples” and opposing same-sex marriage.
Swift’s motivations for breaking her political silence were shared in an emotional exchange with her parents and senior staff, filmed just before that post and included in her 2020 Netflix documentary “Miss Americana.” As others expressed concern that coming out against GOP candidates could potentially put her life in danger or risk alienating fans, she railed against Blackburn running a campaign on “Tennessee Christian Values.” As Swift said, “I live in Tennessee. I am Christian. That’s not what we stand for.” And she bemoaned the fact that she didn’t speak out against Trump in 2016.
While Swift has been a major star for years, in 2023 she is undoubtedly the most famous and influential cultural icon in the country.
Generally speaking, cultural endorsements are not major factors in swaying voter opinion. That held true in 2018: while Cooper handily won reelection in a district that has long supported him, Bredesen was swamped by Blackburn.
But a few celebrities have the notoriety and the cultural influence to shift the political tides. Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in 2007 is estimated by one set of economists to have moved one million voters into Obama’s column. Other research suggests that while Winfrey’s endorsement didn’t change voters’ views on Obama, it may have had a subtler effect of reassuring them about Obama’s viability as a candidate.
Winfrey’s move was almost certainly the exception when it comes to celebrity endorsements. But while Swift has been a major star for years, in 2023 she is, as Oprah was in 2008, undoubtedly the most famous and influential cultural icon in the country. Could an endorsement of Joe Biden affect the outcome of the 2024 election?
Since her 2018 Tennessee endorsements, Swift has not shied away from politics. In October 2020, she tweeted her support for Biden’s presidential bid. In an interview with V magazine, she said, “The change we need most is to elect a president who recognizes that people of color deserve to feel safe and represented, that women deserve the right to choose what happens to their bodies, and that the LGBTQIA+ community deserves to be acknowledged and included.” Nearly four years later, those are all still reasons to support Biden again.
Interestingly, even in a political environment defined by deep levels of polarization, Swift’s endorsement of Democrats has not cratered her popularity among Republicans. Indeed, according to the aforementioned NBC poll, Swift maintains a net positive rating among Republicans — though narrowly.
But Republicans wouldn’t be the prime target for a Swift endorsement anyway. The real audience would be Democrats. 53% of them view Swift positively, and only 5% have a negative view. 55% of Swifties consider themselves Democrats, more than half live in suburbs, and just under three-quarters are white. And, of particular interest to the Biden campaign, nearly half of all Swifties are millennials — a segment of the electorate with whom Biden is struggling. For a candidate who needs young female voters and suburban-dwelling women to get him across the finish line in 2024, who could be a better spokeswoman?
Already this cycle, an Instagram post directed at Swift’s 272 million followers on the importance of registering to vote led to a spike in registrations. Swift’s influence alone could bring more Democratic-leaning voters to the polls. It’s also not hard to imagine that a Swift endorsement of Biden, along with campaign appearances or even ads on his behalf, could directly influence her legions of supporters.
If a Swift endorsement brings just a fraction of her millions of supporters to the polls, that’s still tens of thousands of people.
Remember, in 2020, Joe Biden won Arizona and Georgia by around 11,000 voters and Wisconsin by 20,000 ballots. Next year’s margin of victory could easily come down to a handful of votes in key states.
If a Swift endorsement brings just a fraction of her millions of supporters to the polls, that’s still tens of thousands of people who might otherwise not vote. It could make a — a potentially decisive difference. And would Republicans dare attack Swift and risk the wrath of enraged Swifties? Ask John Mayer or Kanye West how getting on the wrong side of Swift and her fans has worked out for them.
At the very least, it’s difficult to see how it would hurt the 81-year-old incumbent to appear on the campaign trail with a 33-year-old superstar who has her finger on the pulse of young America and is the most beloved cultural icon in the country.
If Biden knows what’s good for him, he'll let Swift know, “You belong with me.” Together, they could write their own political “love story” and “shake it off” down the campaign trail until they reach their “wildest dreams.”After all, with Swift telling Trump he’s too “mean,” touting Biden as the “better man” and making clear her preference for a hero, not an “anti-hero” the political “wonderland” could be in sight. Otherwise, it could be a “cruel summer” and “blank space” for Democrats as they think about what “would’ve, could’ve, should’ve been” and wonder, “Is it over now?”