Welcome to freezing Iowa, where caucusgoers will brave record temperatures, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is hoping for a miracle.
Today’s primary outcome is all but assured. Donald Trump is polling far ahead of his Republican rivals in the state and maintains a lead with the important evangelical bloc. Thus all eyes will be on the winner — of second place. But while Haley’s poll numbers have given hope to those Republicans who understandably wish for an alternative to a twice-impeached former president under indictment in three states and D.C., I’m here with bad news.
Thus all eyes will be on the winner — of second place.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis went all in on Iowa, traveling to all 99 counties in a campaign push he’s very proud of. But the results have been less than stellar. With days to go, Haley has caught up with DeSantis and might even have a slight edge, depending on what polls you’re looking at. Suffolk University’s latest poll, for example, suggested Haley has leapfrogged ahead of DeSantis by seven points (but is still losing to Trump by 34).
Meanwhile, millions of dollars of pro-Haley TV and radio ads are flooding the state in the final few days.
And what will second place in Iowa get Haley? In primaries of yesteryear, a strong runner-up candidate would leave the Hawkeye State with momentum, money and media attention going into New Hampshire. The Super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action, founded by the Koch brothers, endorsed Haley in late November and started pouring money into Iowa.
Enter Charlie Brown and his frenemy Lucy. Just like Lucy teeing up her football, Trump is now in full attack mode, with Haley his main target. Trump knows his followers are always ready to rally against his enemies. The MAGA base loves nothing more than to air grievances and vow vengeance.
Trump’s birther lies, a racist dog whistle, are red meat for his most fervent fans. (He falsely claimed Haley is ineligible to be president because her parents were not U.S. citizens when she was born.) Then he attacked her on Social Security. Haley has suggested raising the age for when younger people would qualify for retirement benefits.
Charlie Brown was lulled into a false sense of security by Lucy. Now Republicans who cannot bear the thought of another Trump administration are being similarly bamboozled as they tell themselves Haley still has a chance.
The thinking goes that if Haley comes in second in Iowa, DeSantis should drop out. Then Haley could consolidate support and beat Trump in New Hampshire, an increasingly competitive race after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his campaign last week. Ideally, Haley’s home state of South Carolina remains up for grabs in late February, with she and Trump locked in a one-on-one battle for the nomination.
I suppose if you are wearing rose-colored glasses, tilt your head to the right and squint very hard, you might see this path to the nomination.
I suppose if you are wearing rose-colored glasses, tilt your head to the right and squint very hard, you might see this path to the nomination. But even if Haley wins in South Carolina — which right now is a huge if — then she’s going to have to keep winning. And there’s no evidence yet to suggest Trump won’t be the favorite on Super Tuesday.
Which means it’s likely that the only person who can stop Donald Trump’s campaign is still Donald Trump — or perhaps the prosecutors looking to send him to jail.
Haley may well defeat DeSantis. If only he were the candidate she needed to beat.
For now, the most curious question coming out of Iowa is what nickname Trump will give Nikki Haley, because you know that is coming.