In the run-up to and aftermath of former President Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses, a number of political commentators have downplayed the results, in part by arguing that since Iowa is small and isn’t demographically representative of the U.S., a Trump win would be — and now is being — overhyped. A lot of this commentary misses the mark. Iowa needn’t look like America for Trump’s win to tell us about the state of the Republican Party and the worrisome direction of the country.
To begin with the obvious, a caucus is an intraparty contest, not a general election, which means Iowa’s demographics should be judged against the party’s demographics, not the country’s. Iowa is much whiter than the U.S., but it’s roughly as white as the GOP is nationally. Iowa is more rural than the average state, but a key part of the GOP’s national constituency is rural America. Iowa has a substantial and highly organized white evangelical population — as does the Republican Party. Trump’s success in the state is a fair preview of the standing he has with his party’s base, which is key to understanding his capacity to mobilize voters if he runs in the general election.
It’s not just Trump’s win that matters, but the way he won.
Secondly, it’s not just Trump’s win that matters, but the way he won: Trump didn’t just surpass his challengers; he absolutely dominated them. In a crowded field, he secured a full majority of the votes and won by the largest margin in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses’ 48-year history. Trump’s opponents had time to camp out in the state while he — as he juggled multiple criminal cases — only dipped in and out. Still, Trump triumphed in 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties.
Even though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had won the endorsement of evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, Trump won in the northwestern regions of the state where white evangelicals are more concentrated. Even in the more moderate suburban areas surrounding Des Moines, where former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was in favorable terrain, Trump prevailed. Even though Trump has been on the national political scene for nearly a decade, suffered a loss in 2020 and is ensnared in a never-ending parade of legal scandals, he was still far and away the preferred candidate of younger voters. In fact, polling suggests he was untouchable across virtually every conceivable demographic that voted. (One exception: Haley and DeSantis bested Trump among suburban college-educated voters.)
Trump’s commanding win is all the more striking in Iowa because the state’s caucusgoers are unusually open to candidates who don’t eventually become the nominee. Iowans did not pick the eventual Republican nominee in 2016 (they chose Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas), 2012 (former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania), or 2008 (former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee). Some of that reflects white evangelicals’ disproportionate sway in the state, while some of it is a function of Iowa voters’ unique sensitivity to massive on-the-ground operations. Iowa is the place where a formidable challenger could’ve made a breakthrough and mounted at least a short-term challenge to Trump during the primary season. Instead, nobody was able to even come close to him. One could theoretically argue that Iowa’s outlier track record diminishes the significance of his win, but given what the national polls are saying, a stronger case can be made in the opposite direction: If we take Iowa’s alternative-friendly track record into account, Trump’s Iowa win foreshadows total command of the party base.
Trump's apparent strength within the GOP won't necessarily translate into general election strength. For example, one entrance poll conducted by Edison Research found that about 3 in 10 caucusgoers said that if Trump were convicted on one of his many criminal charges they’d consider him unfit for office. (Although we should be skeptical of the the durability of that conviction.) But it’s also important to take stock of what’s really happening before our eyes. It isn’t irresponsible horse-race punditry to point out that the nature of Trump’s win is meaningful and a big deal. It’s just common sense.