With Donald Trump’s defeat of Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, there’s no need to waste any more time wishing 2024 might be something other than a Biden-Trump rematch.
The good news, as the election comes into sharper focus, is that there is strong reason to believe that the sensible American majority will preserve our democracy and our freedoms in the only way we can, by rejecting Trumpism and keeping President Joe Biden in office. The surest basis for optimism is evidence that the reality of a robust economy is sinking in with voters. Last week, The Wall Street Journal, citing a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey, reported, “Consumer confidence last month saw its biggest one-month gain since March 2021.”
There is strong reason to believe that the sensible American majority will preserve our democracy and our freedoms in the only way we can, by rejecting Trumpism.
As Biden’s campaign shifts into high gear, you won’t need fantasy to find hope that he can win, so long as reality-based Americans — those clear-eyed about the economy and clear-eyed about Trump and the Republican Party — go to the polls like they did in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Though some worry about a lack of enthusiasm for Biden among Democrats, especially among young people, keep in mind the wise observation of The New Republic’s senior editor Brian Beutler: “[A]nti-Trumpism is the most powerful force in American politics.”
Biden opened the year powerfully framing the 2024 election as one whose stakes “are the preservation of democracy and freedom,” including reproductive freedom and freedom of the press.
And Trump has done nothing but reinforce that framing with his constant anti-constitutional threats. On Jan. 17, for example, he said CNN and MSNBC should have their licenses taken away. With the right messaging, the Biden campaign can help the public see Trump’s rhetoric as a threat to every one of us.
Biden is also sharpening his focus on abortion rights and the ways Republicans have eroded them. He has a gripping new ad running sure to appeal to those who cherish reproductive freedom.
The elections Democrats won from 2018 to 2023 tell us something important: Campaigning on the threats to reproductive freedom drives Americans who don’t want the government messing with their bodies or stalking their bedrooms to wake up and vote.
But again, reproductive freedom is far from all. Biden’s 2022 legislative accomplishments, including getting Congress to pass the Bipartisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act, the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, are big economic wins that ordinary Americans are now feeling.
Bloomberg reported last week that “U.S. consumer sentiment has risen to its highest level since July 2021... according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers Preliminary Results for January 2024.”
As the Journal said in its report about consumer confidence, “[A]s inflation cools ... [a]nd with the solid labor market putting money in the bank accounts of freely spending consumers, recession fears for 2024 are fading.”
“It’s the economy, stupid,” as James Carville famously framed Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 election message. It always has been, and Biden appears to have landed in an economic sweet spot for his re-election.
Democrats have won the last three cycles’ elections (and a long series of special elections since) by making the electorate aware that democracy is at risk.
Notably, even without the economic wind at their backs, Democrats have won the last three cycles’ elections (and a long series of special elections since) by making the electorate aware that democracy is at risk, and there’s every reason to believe that Biden can beat Trump again.
Democrats who need an extra dose of hope should pay attention to how the GOP is stumbling. Local parties play a huge part in the ground game of presidential campaigns — getting out the vote — but, as CNN reported on Jan. 20, there are growing Republican concerns that the turmoil in state GOP organizations could improve Biden’s election prospects.
One last point: As Haley herself pointed out, Trump isn’t as sharp as he was. His bizarre rambling, his mixing up the names of Republican politicians and Democrats and his remarks that suggest he previously ran against Barack Obama have grabbed headlines over the last week or so.
When the U.S. electorate hears and sees him next to Biden, it will be clear that the incumbent is the candidate with presidential command.
So with Tuesday’s primary behind us, all that’s required are enough citizens using reality as their guide in voting and rejecting the fantasy that the 2020 election was stolen, the fantasy that Trump kept the country safer or oversaw a stronger economy and the fantasy that No Labels is anything other than a Trumpian stalking horse.
The American majority need only do what we’ve done the last three election cycles: use our common sense, self-interest and voting power as if our freedom depends upon it.
Because it does.