In any argument, the side that can claim to be realists has an advantage. That’s happening now as commentators make the case that President Joe Biden shouldn’t run for re-election, with Ezra Klein arguing over the weekend in The New York Times that he should step aside because of voter concerns about his age.
I’m a realist too, and I don’t think Biden should step aside. Nor do I think that the pundits on the other side of this question are all ageist or panicked bed-wetters. This is a tough call and one that I’ve gone over in several clear-eyed discussions with veteran political strategists in recent weeks.
This is a tough call and one that I’ve gone over in several clear-eyed discussions with veteran political strategists in recent weeks.
In each of these conversations, after giving ourselves the opportunity to play out all available options and potential catastrophes, we reach the same conclusion. For a number of reasons — including the 2024 campaign calendar, the Biden-Harris war chest, and the president’s unique leadership skills and accomplishments — Biden remains the Democrats’ strongest option. Here’s why:
It’s already too late. I know it’s just February, but the calendar is tight. As a practical matter, potential candidates can only register to run for the party nomination in seven states (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota), plus D.C. It’s simple math. A candidate needs 1,969 of 3,936 Democratic delegates to become the nominee. Biden currently has 91 delegates and will likely garner the 2,000 delegates up for grabs Super Tuesday (March 5) — putting him over the top and making him the de facto nominee.
Democrats can’t afford to wait to build a new campaign. Suppose that Biden followed Klein’s advice and withdrew from the race tomorrow. It would still not be possible for the Democrats to have a nominee in place until their August convention, giving the eventual pick only 11 weeks to stand up coordinated ground operations in battleground states and make their case to America. Frankly, I find it unthinkable that Democrats would put off building their campaign infrastructure until the late summer. That work is already underway and must continue.
Democrats would be giving up a huge advantage. As the incumbent president and assumed party nominee, the Biden campaign has been raising money jointly with the Democratic Party and ended 2023 with the biggest war chest of any Democrat in history, $117 million. This compares with $42 million for the Trump campaign. If Biden were to step aside, this money would not be available for the nominee until August. Democrats have a desperately needed financial advantage over Trump, and it would be reckless to toss this aside.
Biden is one of the world’s most popular democratic leaders. One persistent reason for the disquiet over Biden’s re-election chances is his low approval rating in polls. His inability to get his favorability over 40% is particularly unnerving, given the strong economy and his long list of accomplishments. However, as this Los Angeles Times article lays out, it is a uniquely difficult time to be a popular leader in a democratic country. Biden's low approval rating is still higher than some other elected leaders of industrialized countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan. Moreover, Biden’s current approval rating of 39% is higher than French President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity when he won re-election by double digits in 2022. Here’s also a good reminder that early polls are poor indicators of who wins elections. Each campaign is ultimately a choice between two candidates and not a popularity contest.
Biden polls better against Trump than any other Democrat. To be fair, Biden has nationwide name recognition, which gives him a distinct advantage in polls. But the fact remains that he still polls better against Trump than potential contenders such as Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. If the polls suggested that any of these Democrats might do better than Biden, they could have challenged him. Yet, none of them thought it wise to do so and, instead, signed up to be co-chairs of Biden’s campaign.
As I argued in a newsletter last week, the best way to assuage voters’ concerns about Biden’s age is for the White House to let us see more of the job he is doing. The campaign is doing just that. Since January, Biden has made 11 trips to eight battleground or early primary states. He is feeding the beast of the White House press corps by taking reporters’ questions multiple times a week (including another exchange with reporters Monday), launched an aggressive rapid response digital operation, and is doing apolitical interviews such as Jay Shetty’s mindfulness podcast, reaching voters who don’t pay attention to politics. In these outings, Biden may make a mistake. He’s been gaffe-prone for decades and his age may exacerbate that. It is also true that the more we see of Biden, the less any one mistake will matter and can be considered in the context of the overall excellent job he has done as president.
The wisdom Biden has gained via his age and unparalleled experience is the reason he has been as successful as he has been.
The wisdom Biden has gained via his age and unparalleled experience is the reason he has been as successful as he has been. It’s hard to imagine anyone else managing crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, steering an uncertain economy, working with a difficult Congress — all while keeping Democrats in Washington united — as effectively as Biden and his team of experienced aides. In his piece, Klein agrees, suggesting that the question is not whether Biden can be effective as president but whether he can be effective as a candidate. But even he concedes that Biden ran an effective 2020 campaign that united Democrats and defeated Trump.
Biden’s 2020 campaign was a collaborative effort, and his re-election will need to be, too. Fortunately, Democrats have a candidate at the top of the ticket with the skill, experience, battle-tested staffers and donors to beat Trump again. Democrats’ best option in 2024 remains Joe Biden.