UPDATE (Feb. 27, 2024 10:00 p.m. E.T.): Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have won their respective Michigan primaries, NBC News projects, moving both one step closer to a November rematch.
We know who will win Michigan Tuesday night, but not how they’ll do it, and that will be the interesting part. While both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden will undoubtedly win their respective primaries, the first primary in a general election battleground will have some clues as to what is coming. Here’s what I’ll be looking for after the polls close.
Will Trump continue to show weakness? Trump has been winning the Republican primaries by large margins so far, but maybe not large enough. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has not actively campaigned in Michigan, holding her first rally there Sunday, and polls show her losing to Trump about 80% to 20%. Some of her supporters predict she’ll beat that, however, and get closer to the 40-ish percent she won in South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Make no mistake: Trump’s going to be the nominee.
Make no mistake: Trump’s going to be the nominee, but if he’s consistently losing this large of a chunk of his own party, that portends a potential problem unifying the party and suggests a real weakness with independent voters, many of whom are voting in these Republican primaries.
Does Biden have a problem with Arab American voters? Around 200,000 registered voters in Michigan in 2020 were Arab Americans, and 70% of them voted for Biden. When you consider that the president’s margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes, that’s a sizable enough group to sway the outcome. Democrats unhappy with the U.S. position on the Israel-Hamas war have launched a “Listen to Michigan” campaign calling for voters to send a message by voting “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary.
Pay close attention to Dearborn, which has a high concentration of Arab American voters, 60% of whom voted Democratic in the last competitive presidential primary in 2016. If “uncommitted” does well in Dearborn, or residents skip the Democratic primary to cast their ballots in the GOP primary instead, that would give Biden something to worry about.