Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced on Wednesday that this would be his last Congress as the head of the Senate Republican caucus. While he plans to serve out the rest of his term, which ends in 2027, it won’t be in the role he’s served in for 17 years once he steps aside in November. “It’s time for the next generation of leadership,” McConnell said in an emotional (for him) speech on the Senate floor.
The surprise announcement quickens the race to succeed McConnell, which has been gearing up quietly for years now. Senate Republicans will have to decide whether their new standard-bearer fits more in McConnell’s mold or in that of the MAGA wing that has become more prominent in the upper chamber in recent years. Either way, though, the Senate GOP caucus is about to become much more unpredictable after McConnell’s unprecedented run at the helm.
Senate Republicans will have to decide whether their new standard-bearer fits more in McConnell’s mold or in that of the MAGA wing that has become more prominent in the upper chamber in recent years.
It’s hard to deny McConnell’s reputation as a political strategist, both inside the chamber and out. He understood the value of a united front, harnessing from early in his tenure the power that comes with as few as 41 senators standing in lockstep opposition rather than engaging in the more traditional horse-trading across the aisle. More often than not, recent bipartisan deals have come from Republicans’ bucking his calls rather than operating under his instructions. Lacking any interest in running for president, he has delighted in his reputation as the “grim reaper” presiding over a legislative graveyard.
Instead, McConnell’s most pressing focus, and the bulk of his legacy, has been maintaining and extending the GOP’s power, not just in the Senate but also around the country. Despite his membership in a legislative body, the centerpiece of that project was not any piece of legislation but a yearslong effort to reshape the federal bench. Accordingly, he held off on calls from the likes of former President Donald Trump to end the legislative filibuster, which he has used to disastrous success over the years to stymie Democrats’ agendas, even as he nuked the filibuster’s power over confirming Supreme Court justices. And he successfully managed to create a precedent out of whole cloth to block a Supreme Court nominee under President Barack Obama, only to reverse himself completely when presented with a late-term nominee from Trump.
The success of those efforts was essential to the other half of his terrible legacy: His fight has been to ensure unlimited dark money can flow freely into campaigns. The loss he suffered in the Supreme Court case that bore his name — 2003’s McConnell vs. FEC — was largely overturned in 2010’s Citizen’s United decision. The court’s reversal came thanks to the new justices he’d helped confirm in the interim as the GOP’s whip, the second-ranking leadership position.
In electoral politics, McConnell was one of the few Republicans left who has — at least at times — resisted the party’s embrace of the far right. As the party has increasingly scorned electability as a desirable quality for candidates, McConnell has persisted in boosting candidates who he believed could win statewide victories. That has proved at times an uphill battle in the face of endorsements from Trump that fueled “candidate quality” problems, as McConnell put it in 2022.
The timing of his reign's end means that he’ll remain leader through the general election, maximizing his influence in attempting to ensure the GOP reclaims the majority next year.
His decision not to not run to be re-elected as leader may also be a hedge against what a Trump victory would entail for his remaining time in office. Yes, he clashed at times with the former president, but he was more often happy to enable him in pursuit of his own goals. McConnell’s refusal to support a conviction in his second impeachment is why Trump is even able to be on the ballot at all (for now) this fall. But given what we know about Trump’s plans for a second term and McConnell’s health concerns, the prospect of remaining leader during that time is likely less than appealing.
Most observers agree that the top candidates to replace McConnell are three Republican men named John: Sens. Cornyn of Texas, Thune of South Dakota and Barrasso of Wyoming. Thune, 62, is the youngest of the contenders and currently serves as McConnell’s deputy; Cornyn, 72, is his predecessor; and Barrasso, 71, is the chair of the Senate Republican Conference, the third-ranking position in the caucus. Cornyn and Thune would each be more a continuation of McConnell’s tenure than a major shift. Barrasso is the friendliest with the former president but also the least likely of the three to jump to the top post.
No matter who succeeds McConnell, it’s unhelpful to imagine how the Senate might improve after McConnell’s years of destroying the institution while claiming to be its champion.
Other Republicans, however, may seize their opportunity come November, especially among those whose politics align more with Trump’s than McConnell’s. There’s a chance that Sen. Rick Scott of Florida takes another run at the top spot after failing to dethrone McConnell following the 2022 midterms. And as Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., told the Daily Beast last year: “You never know who else might, in an open leadership contest, who else might run.”
No matter who succeeds McConnell, it’s unhelpful to imagine how the Senate might improve after McConnell’s years of destroying the institution while claiming to be its champion. The new Senate Republican leader likely will be less able to corral a caucus that doesn’t take well to being corralled, in a body that historically emphasized individual senators’ rights. McConnell’s lengthy tenure is an aberration, as is his ability to keep the GOP mostly on the same page. Even that grip has been slipping, as his struggle to get funding for Ukraine passed showed.
Democrats might initially be relieved to no longer have to have someone so well-versed in managing and exploiting the Senate’s complexities and arcane rules running the show. And without McConnell helping steer elections behind the scenes, we may be more likely to see the kind of candidates whom he has opposed flaming out in close races, increasing the odds of Democratic majorities. But at least with McConnell you knew what you were getting. In this case, the iron fist of the devil we know may turn out to have been all that prevented the chaos we’ve seen in the House from fully infecting the Senate, as well.