Donald Trump will likely secure the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday with the help of delegates he'll win in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington state. But those wins will carry with them some danger for other Republicans who will be on the ballot in November.
Whatever you think of Trump's takeover of the Republican Party, it has not been great for down-ballot candidates, especially those running in battleground House districts and swing states. It's already hard to run your own race in a presidential election year, but Trump is a uniquely polarizing candidate.
In fact, since both parties now have their presumptive nominees in place, the 2024 general election is essentially underway already — almost eight months ahead of Election Day. That will be, by some accounts, the longest general election campaign ever. If you are a Republican running in a swing state or district, that means you are going to have to start your own campaign earlier, as well.
You’ll be asked about Trump's latest social media post or speech on a regular basis.
Having Trump at the top of the ticket will make life harder for Republicans in competitive districts. You’ll be asked about his latest social media post or speech on a regular basis. The issues he highlights, either on purpose or inadvertently, will shape your own race. And he’ll suck up all the oxygen in politics, making it harder for you to get your message out.
I have worked with Republicans in deep blue states for decades, and this might be the toughest year I’ve seen for Republican candidates running in swing districts — yes, even harder than George W. Bush in 2004 or Mitt Romney in 2008. Presidential years are always much harder for Republican candidates in blue states because turnout is so much higher than midterm elections. For example, in New York turnout was 63% in 2020, compared with 43% in 2022. That means a lot more voters to try to persuade, and a lot bigger pile of voters who you're never going to be able to reach.
There are 17 congressional seats where Biden won in 2020 and Republicans then won in 2022. Of those, 10 are in the bluest of states: California and New York. It has already been a difficult balancing act for these Republicans to govern without going full MAGA.
If those candidates and other Republicans running in Trump-skeptical areas want to win, they need to prepare now. One unlikely place to look for tips might be the recent special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.
There, once-and-future Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, took a hard pass on having Biden campaign with him, while Republican Mazi Pilip tried to keep Trump at arm’s length, refusing to say whom she voted for in 2020 until just before Election Day.
Suozzi won because he was direct with the voters. Republicans must learn how to do the same. Disagreeing with Trump does not mean enlisting in the resistance. Candidates should run their own race, on their own terms. Reasonable Republicans in these areas must do it without trepidation if they want to win.
It won’t just help you win, it will also help you feel better about why you got into politics. I promise, waking up and being able to look at yourself in the mirror is worth it.