Every four years, the two parties hold their national conventions and boast that their nominees are going to win the presidential election in the fall. Conventions are times to project confidence and unity. However, in speeches from and interviews with Republicans and their conservative allies at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week, they’re expressing more than confidence in former President Donald Trump’s chances. They’re expressing inevitability.
Even before the stunning events of the last several days, the mood among Trump’s devotees was that he can’t lose against President Joe Biden. The convention has seen Republicans double down on that rhetoric, throwing out any caution about predicting a blowout. It’s more than bravado. It’s a flashing warning sign for what may come if the tides shift before November.
Even before the stunning events of the last several days, the mood among Trump’s devotees was that he can’t lose against President Joe Biden.
Since the presidential debate between Trump and Biden in Atlanta last month, Republicans have been more than happy to sit back and watch Democrats panic over their standard-bearer’s performance and debate replacing him on top of the ticket. Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania has further galvanized his followers’ belief that he can’t lose. “Let’s be honest,” former Fox News host Tucker Carlson said at the Heritage Foundation’s Policy Fest, held across the street from the RNC on Monday. “Trump just won. He just won.”
Carlson, who will speak from the main stage at the RNC later this week, wasn’t alone in that thinking. Even as official speakers were told to be a bit more restrained in their speeches, the shooting was taken among Trump supporters as a sign that it’s impossible for him to lose. Evangelical leaders like Franklin Graham have joined members of Trump’s family and campaign in referring to his survival in biblical terms, framing the Trump victory that will follow as nothing short of God’s will. The New York Times reported that attendees viewed the incident as “just one more example of the way everything — everything — seems to be going their way.”
To wit: Mere hours before Carlson’s speech, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon tossed out the federal classified documents case against Trump. One of his vanquished foes in the primaries, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, was scheduled to encourage her supporters to shift their allegiance to Trump, promoting party unity over her past criticisms. It’s no wonder the crowd went wild when the perfectly timed appearance of Trump, with his ear still bandaged, prompted a chant of “Fight! Fight! Fight!” from the gathered throngs.
Republicans are feeling understandably geared up. But the GOP’s success isn’t quite the slam dunk that it’s being made out to be in Milwaukee, not with the election still months away. It’s worth bearing in mind that the predictions of a red wave in 2022 fizzled out, yielding the weakest midterm performance by a party that didn’t hold the White House has had in decades. And the polls still show Biden and Trump running neck and neck even after the tumult of the last few months. And as this week has already shown, there’s a lot that can happen between now and the election.
The narrative that Trump and his allies have crafted is one that rules out any potential loss as illegitimate.
It’s not even certain that the same issues Republicans hope to campaign on will be at play then. The convention’s theme Monday — “Make America Wealthy Once Again” — already clashed with reality. Despite the dire warnings from speakers throughout the day about the supposed horrors of the Biden economy, inflation has leveled off after its post-pandemic peaks, opening the doors to the Federal Reserve’s potentially cutting interest rates between now and November. And unemployment remains low.
In these circumstances, some might find it wise to proceed with at least a little caution for fear of jinxing things. But it’s not just a lack of superstition that is undergirding the GOP’s sureness. The narrative that Trump and his allies have crafted is one that rules out any potential loss as illegitimate. According to an AP-NORC poll conducted last year, even before this feeling of inevitability manifested, 46% of Republicans already expressed little to no faith that November’s ballots will be counted accurately.
Unlike in 2020, when only the most die-hard MAGA elected officials offered full-throated backing for Trump’s wild claims of Democratic election fraud, he will be supported this time by a vast and growing GOP infrastructure primed to do whatever it takes to ensure that failure isn’t an option. Conservative lawyers are already gearing up to target the U.S. voting system in the election’s aftermath, seeking to nullify a Biden win. The Republican National Committee has shifted resources to focus on “election integrity” over helping states drive people out to the polls.
Confidence is a virtue; finding it impossible to believe you could be wrong, as Republicans now do, is hubris that could have dire consequences for the future of democracy. This is what makes it so dangerous for Democrats, reeling from the internal debate over Biden’s future, to buy into the idea that Trump’s win is inevitable, as well. Doing so would be tantamount to endorsing Republicans’ narrative. Democrats need to remember that there’s still time to prove the GOP’s certainty wrong and win in November — even if Republicans are unwilling to admit that such a thing is possible.