Republican nominee Donald Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance exposed not just his confidence, but his cockiness.
He picked someone in the Ohio senator who offered nothing that Trump himself didn’t offer; he didn’t hail from a swing state, isn’t a moderate and doesn't add any diversity to the ticket.
He is a carbon copy of his running mate, chosen precisely because he’s willing to espouse the exact same brand of Trumpism that Trump espouses. Trump was so sure he’d win that he opted to forgo attempting to expand his coalition to double down on more of what he loves most: himself.
While that strategy might have proven successful against President Joe Biden, whose polling was cratering to the point that even states long considered safely blue were in doubt, it may prove catastrophic against frontrunner Kamala Harris.
Not only does Harris herself have the ability (and likelihood) to remain competitive in states that were out of reach for Biden and the ability to claw back the young and diverse voters who’d abandoned him, but there’s potential for even further upside if she chooses a running mate who could bring major electoral advantages as well.
There’s Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of the critical swing state of Pennsylvania; Gretchen Whitmer, the popular governor of another key swing state of Michigan; Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom, two phenomenally effective communicators; Andy Beshear, a Democrat so effective that he managed to win in Kentucky; two-term governors Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Tim Walz of Minnesota; and Mark Kelly, the popular senator of yet another swing state of Arizona. He’s also literally an astronaut.
Trump's third campaign for the White House has been much more disciplined than before, but when it came to the biggest decision he had to make, his ego still won out over strategy.
That may be on-brand for Trump, but it could keep him out of the White House.