A number of early surveys measuring the popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, look promising for her and her party. Several show Harris quickly surpassing President Joe Biden when pitted against former President Donald Trump in the polls. But one data point in particular has me feeling optimistic about Harris’ odds.
But it looks like Harris might have a chance to instantly shed Biden's second-biggest political liability.
A snap poll conducted by Democratic pollster Blueprint immediately after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris found that registered voters were split 50-50 on whether she or Trump would do a better job “bringing down prices” on goods and services. “The upside for Harris is huge: Voters do not hold her accountable for Biden’s perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging,” Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith told Semafor.
To use a Bidenism, this is a big f---ing deal.
Harris coming in even with Trump on inflation might not sound all that positive, but it is. Countless polls have shown that Biden was weak against Trump on the economy, and specifically on inflation. Biden struggled to win back voter trust on the economy, despite the fact that inflation has dissipated, wages have grown and the economy is by many metrics, including the unemployment rate, very strong. It seems that, for at least some of the electorate, the memory of high inflation earlier in Biden’s term stuck to him and was hard to shake off, particularly as housing inflation remains high.
But it looks like Harris might have a chance to instantly shed Biden’s second-biggest political liability — behind only questions about his mental acuity.
Harris getting an opportunity to reset the Democrats on the economy is an especially big deal because it looms particularly large in the eyes of undecided voters who could play a decisive role in the election. While Biden’s "defense of democracy" narrative played well with the plugged-in Democratic base, less politically engaged voters are more focused on their pocketbooks. If Harris is seen as either not responsible for or less responsible for inflation, it could make them more receptive to her pitch on economic issues.
Republicans are starting to roll out attacks on Harris as liable for inflation during Biden’s term; it’s unclear how much of it will stick. Inflation has been notably absent from Harris’ opening case to voters in speeches and her first campaign video. It’s possible she wants to avoid drawing attention to the issue during the initial phase of her campaign, during which she wants to focus in positive terms about her vision for the country and exploit a honeymoon period with the press and the electorate.
But she won’t be able to avoid it indefinitely. Harris will need to settle upon strategies for discussing the Biden administration’s record on the issue; unveil her policy plan to address concerns that some costs remain too high (especially housing) or fears that high inflation could return; and determine whether she will home in on Trump’s extremist tariff plans as inflationary.
There are no easy answers here, as the Harris campaign will have to balance trying to focus on narratives that most naturally play to her strengths against addressing voter concerns. But her performance in the polls suggest that there’s a window for her to make a case that Biden couldn’t.