Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly turned around lagging support from Latinos for the Democratic ticket, though the backing is currently a few points short of the level Joe Biden achieved in 2020, a poll released Wednesday by Equis Research shows.
With 80 days to go in the election, Harris “is on track to hold off a GOP surge” in support from Latino voters, according to a memo on the poll. Equis Research is a Democratic polling firm that focuses on Latinos.
But a significant portion of registered Latino voters, many of them new voters, are still an unknown on whether they will vote or whom they will support. Where these voters eventually land could determine the outcome in some battleground states, the polling firm said in the memo.
“Out the gate, the vice president has quickly amassed the support of a wide swath of discontented Hispanic voters, and she still has running room,” it stated. “What those last Latino voters do could determine the overall result in hotly contested states. "
In its poll conducted July 22 to Aug. 4, Harris led former President Donald Trump by 19 points, 56% to 37%, among registered Hispanic voters in the seven most competitive states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
That compares to its May 16 to June 6 poll in the same states that showed Biden with a 5 point lead, 46% to 41%. Those numbers preceded the June 28 debate that eventually led to Biden stepping aside and Harris becoming the Democratic nominee.
Biden finished the 2020 election with 65% of the votes by Latinos to Trump's 32%, according to NBC News exit polls. Research shows Trump had cut into Democrats' advantage with Latinos, starting with his first run in 2016, despite launching that campaign by trashing people of Mexican descent. Biden's lower performance this year appeared to be setting the stage for more gains for Trump among Latino voters, according to recent polls.
As with other groups, Harris has excited Latino voters and made the race more competitive.
“With the entrance of Kamala Harris, we are seeing results that are back in a historically normal range. Relative to Biden, she sees rebounds across Latino subgroups, with the largest among young people,” the polling firm said.
Gains with young voters
About 44% of the poll’s respondents were under 40. Among those voters, Harris’ support is 17 points higher than Biden’s was, 60% to 43%.
She has support from 59% of Latinas, nine points better than Biden had in early June, and her support has risen among Latino men, from Biden’s 41% to Harris 51%.
The pollsters said that Harris' support is not only among liberal Latinos, though that is where she has made her best gains — 16 percentage points better than Biden. But she's also doing better with moderate, 12 points, and conservative, 7 points, Latinos.
She has the support of 65% of so-called double haters who disliked both Biden and Trump, compared to 11% support for Trump. About 1 in 4 are still undecided or unlikely to vote.
The survey of 2,183 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino is the latest in a polling series and was conducted July 22 to Aug. 4 in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Of the total respondents, 1,242 were in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The margin of error for the 12 states is plus or minus 2.9% and plus or minus 3.7% in the seven battleground states.
Uncertainties remain in key battleground states
Harris is a few points shy of the 2020 support level from Latinos in battleground states that Biden had and support varies by state.
In Wisconsin, she has matched 2020 levels. But she is 5 points shy of 2020 support levels in Nevada, one of the states where Biden as a nominee was slipping the most, according to the poll.
In Arizona, Harris is likely to need the same support level as Biden won in 2020, when he won the state by a fraction of a point. She’s 2 points shy of that, the poll memo states.
But Hispanic voters who could determine the outcome of the election in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not wired into the day-in and day-out election news.
They are likely to be undecided about whether to vote and whom to vote for until the election is a lot closer, Equis stated in the memo.
The share of Latinos who were undecided fell when Harris entered the race. Some 15% of registered Latinos still fall into the persuadable category — because they either are switchers or ballot splitters, those who vote for different party candidates.
About 9% of those polled support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the lowest share in Equis Research's polling, the memo states. But that creates an uncertainty for the election outcome — along with the 30% to 40% who will be voters who did not vote in 2020.
Harris leads among newly registered voters 51% to Trump's 35%, a 6-point improvement over Biden.
“In important ways, this race has just begun,” Equis stated.
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