A month ago, Democrats weren’t just “in disarray,” as the perennial meme beloved by conservatives goes. They were in downright despair.
President Joe Biden was insisting he would stay on the presidential ticket unless the Almighty himself told him to step down. Since the Almighty had not made many direct interventions in human affairs since that one chat with Moses on Mount Sinai a few years back, it seemed like the Democrats were stuck with a candidate most Americans thought was too old to run again.
Then came the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, from which he emerged with his fist held high in the air, surrounded by Secret Service agents as blood streamed from his ear. That image became instantly iconic, a show of defiance against a would-be assassin. A columnist for The Guardian had the temerity to put into words what many of us were thinking: “Did Donald Trump just win the election?”
A month ago, Democrats weren’t just ‘in disarray.’ They were in downright despair.
Yes, went the prevailing answer. In the days after the attempt on Trump’s life, in texts exchanged with Democratic operatives on Capitol Hill and staffers in the Biden administration, I sensed only unmitigated despair. Everyone was glad that Trump had emerged unscathed, but they also recognized how much that one moment had seemingly shifted the entire political landscape.
“The presidential contest ended last night,” a Democratic strategist told NBC News.
Morale was plunging. Not just electoral morale, mind you, but the morale of people who feared that their work — on green energy, racial equity, Israel-Palestine — was going to be undone by Trump, just as much of Barack Obama’s legacy had partly been after the 2016 election.
The shock of a Trump victory in 2016 had come at the very last moment, as the stunning results from Wisconsin and Michigan came in. But as Democrats realized the ship was sinking in July 2024, many became resigned to watching a three-month slow-moving defeat — as Trump coasted to perhaps the easiest presidential victory since Ronald Reagan clobbered Walter Mondale in 1984.
Now it is August, the Democratic National Convention is about to commence in Chicago, and the reversal of fortunes since late July could not be more astonishing.
As a dispassionate observer who does not vote, I’ve nevertheless watched every Democrat I know wake up as if from a long, frustrating sleep into a sunny reality they did not know could exist. Not since the earliest days of the Obama phenomenon has there been this much energy from mainstream Democrats.
Then there’s Trump himself, who has struggled to define his new opponent while resorting to some of his worst impulses.
We have much to learn about Vice President Kamala Harris, but there is no doubt she has energized the entire party in just a matter of weeks, despite having been a known and not especially well-liked political entity for the last four years. It’s like she fell out of a coconut tree, you might say, to suddenly discover that she has been unburdened by what has been (I’ll stop now).
“She’s got an intensity advantage, and I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” the Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently said on CNBC.
That intensity took a few steps to build.
First came the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, and the selection of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as Trump’s running mate. I maintained from the start that he was a bad choice born of arrogance, pushed by cryptocurrency enthusiasts, fringe nationalists and online edgelords (in other words, Peter Thiel). Everything since then has borne out that opinion, and then some. Vance is a serious drag on the Republican ticket. Don’t be surprised if Trump replaces Vance with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, whom he should have picked in the first place.
Then, of course, came The Swap. Here, I made an incorrect prediction: that Harris would not be seen as a legitimate choice to replace Biden unless she emerged from something resembling a primary. I was wrong. With astonishing speed, Harris got the entire Democratic establishment to back her as Biden’s successor.
Third, there was Tim Walz. I found the far-left campaign against Josh Shapiro, the popular and moderate Pennsylvania governor, to be unseemly and frankly laced with antisemitism. At the same time, I am sure that his Minnesota counterpart is the better choice for this moment.
Walz offers a better contrast to Harris herself, and his folksy Midwestern charm has been a tonic for our bitter political climate. Plus, his labeling Trump and, in particular, Vance as “weird” in an MSNBC interview may turn out to be the most inspired political branding of the season. He has only extended the enthusiasm for Harris while Vance has continued to drag on Trump.
And then there’s Trump himself, who has struggled to define his new opponent while resorting to some of his worst impulses, attacking her racial identity at a summit of Black journalists, then going after Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, the Republican leader of a key state.
It is simply true that the Democrats have enjoyed a reversal of fortunes unlike anything I’ve seen in American politics.
“Trump Is Looking Like a Loser Again,” went the headline of a column by Gerard Baker of The Wall Street Journal, a conservative who likes Harris as much as I like the Boston Red Sox. In no way would I count out Trump — but it’s simply undeniable that his chances of victory are trending downward. He is doing nothing to help his own chances.
And expect to see protests by activists in Chicago. Although some pro-Palestinian activists have said they are willing to give Harris a chance, she is unlikely to budge from her commitment to Israel, which could lead to a damaging internecine spat. Her centrist views on the economy could also frustrate a left that, like the right, is bound to be disappointed by the fact that Harris is not a to-the-barricades progressive.
Please don’t read any of this as cheerleading. It is simply true that the Democrats have enjoyed a reversal of fortunes unlike anything I’ve seen in American politics. It may not last, but it is real.